The “Pickens Plan”… One Year On
Jul 28th, 2009 | By David Fessler | Category: Featured, Oil Investment & Alternative EnergyOf all the people you might expect to spearhead a movement away from oil and onto alternative energy, T. Boone Pickens probably wouldn’t be at the top of the list.
But a year ago, the 81-year old chairman of BP Capital spent his own money to buy prime time on major networks and mobilized an “army” of believers in order to get the word out about the dangers of continued dependence on foreign oil.
Earlier this month, Pickens appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to discuss the progress of the “Pickens Plan,”which essentially seeks to reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign oil through a combination of wind-generated power and natural gas powered vehicles. The goal: Drastically reducing or eliminating the need for foreign oil in as little as 10 years.
His timing was perfect, as oil prices shot to all-time highs around $150 a year ago. The plan garnered a lot of attention. And to his credit, over the past 12 months, nobody else has articulated a plan as clearly and succinctly as Pickens’ has.
Today, however, oil prices are down some 54% and the U.S. is sliding deeper into recession. Is shutting off foreign oil still a concern? Have we made any progress in doing so? Are we any closer to a national energy plan?
The short answers are:
- Definitely yes
- Yes
- Almost
Let me explain…
Get Rid Of The Rogues… And Pocket $400 Billion
While the price of oil has declined dramatically over the past year, our dependency on foreign oil is as great as ever. We still get over 70% of our oil from other countries, and it’s a huge security issue.
While the transfer of wealth – dollars out for oil in – is less, it’s still a huge net outflow of nearly $400 billion annually.
There’s no question that keeping that money here will not only have a positive effect on our trade balance, it’ll make a huge difference in the U.S. economy – a “free” $400 billion annual stimulus package, if you will.
Alternatively, according to Pickens, “If we go 10 more years with no plan, we’ll be importing 75% of our oil and it will cost us $300 a barrel.”
Even if he’s wrong by 50% – which is unlikely given increasing world demand – it’s still a big problem. So how do we get rid of the rogues?
The “Anti-Oil”: U.S. Natural Gas Reserves Soaring
In terms of our progress in displacing foreign oil, there’s only one quick way to do it: Replace it with natural gas.
The Potential Gas Committee – the nation’s authority on natural gas supplies – recently issued a report that showed a substantial increase in U.S. natural gas reserves.
The report indicated that the nation’s gas reserves have increased by 25% to 2,074 trillion cubic feet (tcf) from 1,532 tcf in 2006 – the last time the report was issued. It was the largest increase in the 44-year history of the committee and its language reflected that: “[The report] shows an exceptionally strong and optimistic gas supply picture for the nation.”
That’s an understatement. By 2030, it projects a supply of nearly one hundred years – the most in the world.
John B. Curtis, a geology professor at the Colorado School of Mines and the report’s principal author, said,“New and advanced exploration, well drilling and completion technologies are allowing us increasingly better access to domestic gas resources – especially unconventional gas – which, not that long ago, were considered impractical or uneconomical to pursue.”
The findings have shifted the focus onto natural gas as a possible transition fuel as we move from coal and oil to solar, wind, geothermal and other non-carbon sources of power. It couldn’t have come at a more opportune time.
A National Energy Plan: Slow And Steady, But Are We Winning The Race?
The best thing the government can do to move us away from fossil fuels is to provide funding and tax incentives to develop and use something else (and then get the hell out of the way). And it appears as though Congress is trying to do just that with natural gas.
H.R. 1835, known as the “New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions Act of 2009,” amends the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to create jobs and encourage alternative energy investments.
Here’s what this act provides:
- An excise tax credit through 2027 for alternative fuels and motor vehicles involving compressed or liquefied natural gas (LNG).
- An income tax credit through 2027 for vehicles powered by compressed or LNG.
- A new tax credit for the production of vehicles fueled by natural gas or LNG.
- A tax credit for alternative fuel vehicle refueling property expenditures for refueling property relating to compressed or LNG and allow an increased credit for such property.
- Requires 50% of all new vehicles purchased or placed in service by the U.S. government by December 31, 2014, to be capable of operating on compressed or LNG.
- Authorizes the Secretary of Energy to make grants to manufacturers of light and heavy-duty natural gas vehicles for the development of engines that reduce emissions, improve performance and efficiency, and lower cost.
Now before I get a dozen e-mails pointing out that natural gas is just a different fossil fuel, let me head them off. There’s no argument there. But here’s where it’s very beneficial…
The Benefits Of Natural Gas – And How To Play It
Natural gas is a much cleaner burning fuel, produces less carbon emissions and, most importantly, it’s found here in abundance. It’s a walk in the park to produce new cars and trucks that run on it, and convert older ones as well.
And if it helps free of the grip of rogue nations around the world in 10 years or less, then I’m all for it. We’ll all be better off economically, and we’ll all have greater piece of mind.
How do you play it? Take a look at Clean Energy Fuels Corporation (Nasdaq: CLNE), a provider of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, primarily for fleet use in the United States and Canada. It designs, builds and operates natural gas fueling stations, and provides financing for natural gas vehicles. It and others in the sector will undoubtedly benefit from this legislation when it’s passed.
Source: Energy Independence: The Progress, The Problems… And A Way To Profit
{Editor’s Note: One year ago, oil prices were atrecord highs… the U.S. political scene was gridlocked amid the presidential election… and a fellow named T. Boone Pickens was promoting a bold new plan to wean the U.S. off its oil dependency and towards wind power and natural gas instead (and Pickens is an oilman). Today, oil prices are trading around $68, so where does the “Pickens Plan” stand now? Investment U columnist and infrastructure specialist David Fessler reports on whether cheaper oil prices have dampened the drive towards greater energy independence, plus a way to play a natural gas-powered future. Martin Denholm, Managing Editor, Smart Profits Report}
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