Fact 1, they have raised prices, and are doing so once again next week. This is well documented in the press, and on blogs. They have continued to add subscribers in a recession, and revenues for fourth quarter were up 'double digits'. The FCC stopped them from raising prices on 'standard' subscriptions, but 'best of', Internet streaming, and additional subscription prices after the initial one, are not restricted and all prices are going up.

Fact 2, the 2/09 debt is down to 170MM, and they have 300MM in cash after Q4. The 5/09 debt is 'secured' bank debt, and likely to be renewed. The 400MM in 12/09 is convertible. If you look at the company cash flows and EBITDA, versus all outstanding debt you will find that 2010 has no significant debt expirations and positive cash flow to retire the bulk of the rest of the debt by 2014 when it comes due. The current refinancing is a major hurdle, no doubt, but is now down to a management level.

Fact 3, the talent contracts were 'front loaded' and most of Howard Stern's payments were made in 07, and his contract ends in 2010. You can 'renegotiate', but you can't 'make' him stay! No real benefits on the talent side to a BK, and only the risk of subscriber cancellations that would destroy cash flow. As for the debt holders, they fear a BK as much as the company. They can easily get a better deal from the company then a bankruptcy judge will give them, and with the disarray the company might suffer with consumers bailing during a BK they will be hurt the most since that would extend further any payout. Highly unlikely they will not refinance or convert to equity which allows them to get repaid through the sale of the stock immediately. It dilutes the shareholders, but saves them at the same time.

MY PREDICTION: You will wrong on all your predictions. But I could be wrong.