I could almost hear the collective groans of disbelief as soon as readers read my forecast. It was a column I wrote almost three years ago, warning about the impending U.S. real estate crisis and projecting that home prices were set to tumble by as much as 40%. Turns out I actually under-estimated the scale of the bust. Prices have fallen much more than that in some areas – and may fall even further. The are obvious reasons for this. The economic recession. The evaporation of available credit. A huge increase in unemployment. And, of course, the mere fact that the housing market had simply risen to bubble-like proportions and needed to correct. But there’s a bigger problem – and it’s the main reason why home prices will continue to stay depressed…

The Short Sale Is Selling Everyone Short

The U.S. has an excess supply of housing. What’s more, it shows no sign of decreasing. And in this case, the culprit isn’t just overextended homeowners, but the banks, too.

Case in point: I’ve spent the past two weeks shopping for a house that I can use for investment purposes. What I’ve found is that while there are many bargains available, few will actually materialize.

The problem is that true sellers – those unencumbered by losses and not just intent to ditch the property at almost any cost – cannot sell their homes because they face competition that they simply can’t beat.

That competition is coming from distressed sellers – those who are advertising “short sales.”

A short sale is a way of getting out of a mortgage without enduring the pain of going into foreclosure. So the seller basically agrees to sell the property at a lower price than the mortgage – i.e. at a loss. But the sale can’t proceed without consent from the lender. It’s then a matter of negotiating with the lender to figure out how much responsibility the seller has for the loss.

The trouble is, short-sellers are making an already bad situation even worse for the rest of us because they’re under the impression that they can simply walk away from a property as long as they’ve found a buyer. So they list their properties at often ridiculously low asking prices, thus depressing the market around them.

But, wait… that’s good for buyers, isn’t it? Not so fast…

The Short-Sale Saga

Once a short-seller set a price and gets offers, he takes them to the bank, which then decides if it wants to eat the difference between the loan amount and the amount offered by the buyer.

In most cases, the banks come back with a different, higher amount – and then the circus begins.

The seller naturally balks at the higher price because he wanted less burden – i.e., a free lunch).

The buyer balks because the price is much higher than the listing price – which was a joke to begin with.

By the time the process churns through, three to four months have passed because the bank is obviously in no hurry to take the hit on its books. Moreover, it’s in no rush because the government is subsiding its operations and providing cheap money to lend.

And who’s the fall guy from this fiasco? The real sellers.

A Three-Year, $225,000 Price Depreciation

As a result of short-sellers squashing their market, true sellers have to lower their asking prices to reflect what shows up on the Multiple Listing Service as the average price for the area.

And you guessed it… these average prices include grossly mispriced short sales. Sales that aren’t based on the true value of the market, but the whims and wishes of a seller who got in over his head.

For example, one place I looked at was listed at $300,000 just three years ago. Today’s price: $75,000.

Not only that, the carrying costs are high because it’s a condo that comes with high monthly homeowners fees and property taxes, which were based on higher assessments.

A similar property sold a few weeks earlier. It was a “short-sale,” listed at $75,000. The bank had returned with a counter-offer to the buyer of $150,000. The home eventually closed for $135,000. The seller was lucky. The buyer must really have wanted the place. But it still took three months for the process to close.

And don’t expect any help from the realtors listing the property either. Sure, they’re doing it in hopes of making sale, but they won’t spend much time on it – and sometimes won’t even respond to a short sale.

Why? Because the prices are low… they’re artificial prices that don’t reflect the home’s real value… and the short sale can take months to consummate. Not only that, it will often result in a lower commission because the bank will ask all parties for concessions.

And if the short-seller has moved out and is renting the place, tenants rights can interfere with the sale, with many paying below-market prices and not compelled to keep the place in showable condition, or be available for a showing.

Here’s the deal…

The Bargains Are Out There… But You’ve Got To Work For Them

A low selling price means absolutely nothing in this market if the home is in pre-foreclosure.

The better deals are available on “bank-approved prices,” which means the properties are already in foreclosure and the bank has already agreed on a price.

And of course, the best possible price will come from a non-short-seller who is forced to compete with short-sale prices – i.e. artificial competition.

And remember, while there are bargains available, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Getting what you want requires more work than the media lets on.

And as for U.S. housing prices… they’re going to stay low until the real selling prices are determined. And that’s not happening yet.

Karim Rahemtulla

Source: The 800 Pound Gorilla on the Housing Market’s Back