The Bear Market Raid by the Cartel Continues
Apr 25th, 2008 | By Ed Steer | Category: Gold MarketIn Globex trading yesterday, the New York boys went to work on gold almost the moment that the Comex opened for trading. For silver, it was just before the Comex opened.
Normally they hit them both at exactly the same time, but there was a slight difference in yesterday’s pattern. It probably means nothing.
Doubtless there has been massive tech fund long liquidation, but you’d never know it by looking at the changes in open interest over the last couple of days. Wednesday’s numbers (like Tuesday’s) were no exception. Open interest for gold was up 3,643 contracts…and silver o.i. rose as well, but only 59 contracts. This is completely counter-intuitive. Is this shorting by the Cartel or the tech funds, more spread trades…or new buyers? Don’t know. Today’s COT, which will be released at 3:30 Eastern time, will only tell us part of the story. This sell-off started on the 17th and the cut-off for today’s COT was Tuesday the 22nd at the close of trading. Will everything that’s supposed to be reported actually be in this report? Using the past as prologue, the answer is no. We’ll have to wait until the following Friday…May 2nd…to hopefully get a more complete picture. I was interviewed on this subject by Al Korelin yesterday…and if you want to hear me talk about it, you can find it linked here.
The question still remains whether or not the Cartel/the boyz/bullion banks/’8 or less traders’…call them what you will…are trying to get every last possible long they can…like they did in August…when we got butchered last time. Don’t know that either, but this is their modus operandi after a huge run-up like we had in 2006…and now in 2008. Right now the 200 day m.a. in gold is $818…and silver’s is $15.23. Here is the three-year gold chart. Note that the price kissed the 200 day m.a. in June of 2006 before heading higher. Click here.
One thing is for sure, we’re closer to the bottom then we are the top. And as I said before, don’t expect the mining companies, the Silver Institute or the World Gold Council to help you out. We’re totally on our own (and defenseless) against the Cartel. However, the boyz can only win the odd battle here and there, as they are obviously losing the war in the long term.
Another thing of note…in a conversation with Ted Butler yesterday, he informed me that the gold ETF…GLD, has now liquidated about 50 tonnes of its holdings in the last three days and is now sitting about 5% lower in physical bullion than it was four months ago. On the other hand, the silver ETF…SLV, has increased its holding 25% since the beginning of the year, and hasn’t sold an ounce of it (as of this writing) despite the decline of $5 we’ve had in the price since the middle of March. You can read into that whatever you want.
A couple of stories today, the first is silver analyst Ted Butler’s latest commentary entitled “Then and Now”. How Ted can write about one subject year after year…and put a different spin on it each time…has always amazed me. This piece is no different and is linked here.
The second article is on real estate. Yesterday’s new home sales numbers were worse than awful…and well-known economist, Robert Schiller, says we’re a long, long way from the bottom. I couldn’t agree more. The story is entitled “Economist: Housing slump may exceed Depression” and is linked here.
Hank Paulson must have been a happy man again yesterday. Dollar up…check. Dow up…check. Oil down…check. Precious metals down again…check. I’m sure he turned in early last night in preparation for another hard day at the office. Let’s see how he makes out…and all of us at Casey’s Daily Resource Plus will be here on Saturday to talk about it, and we’ll see you then.
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