We have had our suspicions about the current stock rally ever since it kicked off by ‘leaked’ memos by Citigroup, BoA and JPMorgan Chase announcing a return to profitability.

In our eyes, there has always been something strangely stage managed about this rally, which sent the badly wounded S&P 500 zooming up about 31% from its March 6 lows. First, the ‘leaked’ memos… then the earnings report press releases… then the bogus earnings reports themselves – filled with once-off items, FASB accounting hocus-pocus and missing months.

But the massive increase in program trading (computer trading of large baskets of stocks) by Goldman adds an even stranger dimension. The bank has fed the rally with a massive increase in its principal program trading at a time when other quant funds and program traders have been quickly deleveraging. One billion shares principal traded is becoming the weekly norm for Goldman.

There’s a neat quid pro quo here, if you care to look for it. The government bails out AIG using taxpayers’ money. The idea supposedly being to provide enough liquidity to AIG to allow it to make credit-default-swap settlements to counterparties at significant haircuts to avoid “systematic risk.” But what happened? These trades were settled at 100% – handing massive profits to counterparty banks.

The bank in receipt of the biggest AIG settlement, Goldman Sachs, then uses these funds (or part thereof) to feed the rally in stocks via its massive principal program trading operation, thus relieving pressure on the Obama administration as it completes its significant 100 days in office milestone.

Look close enough and what you see if a massive taxpayer-financed rally orchestrated by the banks and their government sponsors. First, the AIG conduit: the counterparty CDS unwinds were taxpayer financed. Ditto the PPIP, which proposes using tax dollars as leverage for private funds who want to buy toxic assets from banks. The banks have also been raising money via government-backed debt issuances – something very few mainstream investors understand or even know about.

Luckily, there are alternatives to trusting your luck in this kind of market. For instance, Money Morning’s Geiger Index trading program has maintained a 100% success rate this year.

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