Saturday, November 21st, 2009

The end of efficient markets

Nov 10th, 2009 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Notes From the Investment Underground

Baltimore — (TFN): How efficient are the markets? It is like asking how smart is the human race We all know the answer, but few of us are willing to suck in our pride and admit there are a few dim bulbs among us.

Judging by the sudden rise in fame of Levi Johnson or Balloon Boy’s antics, the human brain is far feebler than we give credit.

And so are the markets.

If you have taken a basic finance class anytime between 1965 and the present, you have likely studied Eugene Fama and his efficient market hypothesis.

Essentially, the University of Chicago professor created a cult-like following of investors and academicians that believe markets entirely reflect all known information and instantly react to new information.

For example:

When I told my ever-optimistic, ever-“hopeful” colleague, Laura Cadden, the news the majority of Obama’s infrastructure stimulus would finally be doled out sometime early next year was already priced into the market, I was showing my belief in efficient markets.

When she gave me a look that curled my toenails, I knew she didn’t believe in such “nonsense.”

The difference between efficient market “believers” and “non-believers” is as strong and divided as the difference between the Left and the Right. In many cases, in fact, the same arguments are involved.

It’s obvious these days that the Left does not believe in Fama’s theory. Why else would it build new regulations and reforms in an effort to limit market freedom?

The Right, on the other hand, with its unending determination to “let the markets handle it,” believe efficient markets will govern and regulate themselves as long as politicians keep their busy hands out of it.

Most of Wall Street tends to follow the Right’s path, realizing the more we know about an investment, the better the decisions we can make.

But it doesn’t matter what you and I think. We aren’t in charge.

Right now, the Left is in charge.

That means free market economics have got to yield to big governments and ever-increasing regulations.

That makes guys like Chris Dodd happy.

Just a few of hours ago, the Senate Banking Committee’s chairmen released an 1,100-page draft bill that takes the very notion of efficient markets and capitalism working hand in hand and tosses it out the window.

Instead of letting a Darwinian-style market separate the strong from the weak, Mr. Dodd wants the government to do the work.

His monstrous bill, which is still nearly 50% shorter than Pelosi’s anti-market healthcare package, finally calls for the “change” so many folks voted for last November.

The Feds power to regulate banks is eradicated. The FDIC role is limited. A new consumer protection agency is created. Executive compensation is in play. Credit-rating agencies will get new guidelines. And of course, the derivatives industry will be re-tooled.

Welcome to the new America, my comrades.

Washington is working to do everything it can to make the markets as inefficient as possible.

It is one more piece of information that proves that human mind is greatly overvalued.

*** Just to prove that efficient markets are still at work and new information can make or break a portfolio, the natural gas industry is reeling today as the International Energy Agency officially warned of a global glut of the vital energy source.

Gas prices are down to their lowest levels in weeks after the agency warned of a strong decline in demand this year and a massive spurt in new production.

As I write, natural gas is trading for $4.483 per MMBtu. Less than a month ago, that figure was just shy of the $6.00 mark.

It’s a downward trend with no end in sight.

Fortunately for TFN Strategic Trader, the news means just one thing, big gains.

I recommended four ways to play the situation recently. Earlier today, all four picks were worth double-digit gains, with one doozy up by 324%.

There’s still time to get in on the action. Read my exclusive report right here.


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By Andrew Snyder

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Andrew is a contributor to Daily Reckoning Australia and Today's Financial News.

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Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

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