Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

The Great Debate: Decoupling

Mar 30th, 2008 | By Krista Das | Category: Real Estate Investments

The subprime crisis, now referred to as the U.S. housing debacle, has certainly stirred up much controversy about a greater debate, decoupling. Many analysts question whether the U.S. recession will cause emerging markets to follow suit.

The following was taken from the March 29 Market Insights video with Krista Das featuring Sara Nunnally, editor of Taipan Trader. Watch this video.

Krista Das: Welcome to Smart Investing Market Insights on TodaysFinancialNews.com. I’m Krista Das.

The subprime crisis, now referred to as the U.S. housing debacle, has certainly stirred up much controversy about a greater debate, decoupling. Many analysts question whether the U.S. recession will cause emerging markets to follow suit. Not so, says my next guest. While it is true that global markets will feel some impact from the troubles of the U.S. economy, it’s not going to lead to a global meltdown.

Sara Nunnally is a regular on such financial shows as CNBC’s Squawk Box and is the editor of Taipan Trader, a trading research service that looks internationally for profits. She has become neck deep in research, traveling all over the world to find out who isn’t affected by this fiasco. And surprisingly, there are numerous international banks not carrying even a crumb of risky U.S. investments. Sara, welcome to the program.

Sara Nunnally: Thank you, Krista.

Krista Das: So tell us, when you are comparing banks and other financial companies, what sets apart a good investment from a bad one?

Sara Nunnally: Well, aside from having some of those crumbs of the U.S. market that keep having large ramifications throughout the entire global financial complex, we are looking at fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals. That’s the very key. You need to find companies that are growing in their respective markets, that have a diverse loan portfolio and a growing loan portfolio. It’s as simple as that.

Krista Das Rather watch the video? Click here.

Krista Das: What areas of the world are you finding these opportunities?

Sara Nunnally: Well, it’s no surprise that we’re looking in places like Brazil and India, but we’re also looking at places like Greece and Spain. But the key point is they have to be growing their own market share within their respective markets, and that is kind of the crux of what we’re talking about. Sometimes they may not be – they may not have been big enough to buy into this U.S. subprime crisis, and that’s a good thing. But on the other hand, they still have to be growing locally.

Krista Das: From your technical analysis, what is a good entry point?

Sara Nunnally: Without getting too complex, let’s keep it simple. While the U.S. market is going down, we’re looking for that decoupling with these other markets starting to rise or starting to find support. That’s a key thing. Now, in going a little bit deeper into that, as you said, we could see some of these tremors still affecting the rest of the world’s global financial markets. But you still need to find that support. You need to find that divergence away from the U.S. downward trend.

Again, that does make it a little bit more difficult to time the bottoms, but when you go back to fundamentals of these financial institutions and you make sure you have a good company, then once again, when these markets do start decoupling and do start diverging, you have a good company in your portfolio.

Krista Das: I see. Any particular picks that you can tell us about?

Sara Nunnally: Well, I mentioned Brazil before, and it’s no surprise that we first started seeing this decoupling come from that strong market. So in particular, we singled out a bank called Banco Bradesco. It’s traded as an ADR here under the symbol BBD. Over the last quarter it’s grown its net income 21 percent, and that’s only quarter over quarter. Year over year it’s grown 58.5 percent, and that’s due to its increasing loan portfolio.

Their loan portfolio grew 12.8 percent last quarter, more than 38 percent year over year. And that’s because more people are buying cars. More people are buying house – yes, still in Brazil. More people are taking out credit cards. Saving deposits, all of that core customer, fee-based income is coming into Banco Bradesco, and we find that that’s the type of information that’s going to keep this company sustained above any of the world’s global impact from the subprime crisis.

Krista Das: Okay. Now, that sounds good. Are there delinquent loans from BBD or are they completely covered?

Sara Nunnally: They are 117 percent covered. And they’re decreasing their delinquency loan rates from 4.2 percent of their total loans to 4 percent of their total loans. So those are two key figures that I think you should look at in a number of different, global financial companies in a way to move away from the U.S. market.

Krista Das: Sara, thanks for setting us straight on the decoupling debate. Great information.

Sara Nunnally: Thank you, Krista.

Krista Das: If you would like more information from Sara about international profit opportunities and her service, Taipan Trader, click on the screen or go to TodaysFinancialNews.com.


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Krista Das is a contributor to Today's Financial News

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Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

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