The Most Overlooked Predictor Of Commodity Prices
Nov 18th, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Financial NewsAs commodity prices continue to plunge, investors watch their favorite charts, tables and graphs in awe and dread.
Tight credit, shrinking consumer buying and the falling real estate prices have commodity investors wondering, when will it turn around?
To find an answer to that question, we look at another indicator to help determine the future of commodity prices. It’s not one most investors think of in trying to predict which way commodities will go.
But if you look at its current moves, you’ll probably draw the same conclusion that we did: commodities will be ugly for a while.
The indicator I’m referring to is Fitch Ratings – the company that provides so-called credit opinions on companies, markets.
Over the past week or so, Fitch Ratings lowered the sovereign credit rating worthiness for several emerging market economies that had flourished during the commodities boom.
Many of these countries rode up the prices of oil, natural gas and precious metals – in turn re-investing their gains in economic growth and infrastructure to boost trade.
In addition to commodity pullbacks, Fitch Ratings also looked at the health of the countries’ national banking systems to determine if the governments were doing enough to ensure their survival.
Still, in many of the Fitch Ratings downgrades, the one message that kept cropping up was that these companies are suffering from dropping commodity prices.
Mexico, Russia and South Africa – countries rich in commodities – were revised down to “negative” from “stable,”
Chile and Malaysia were lowered to “stable” from “positive.” Brazil was reaffirmed at “stable.”
The downgrades are certainly indicators of past and current problems. But the downgrades also give rise to speculation about any near-term rebounds getting pushed out to a distant horizon.
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