On June 10, 2008, Alexei Miller, CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, told a French audience that crude oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009. His former Gazprom cohort and then freshly minted Russian prime minister Medvedev did him one better… pegging crude oil prices at $500. Was it wishful thinking? Did the gentlemen overdose on “hard-money” investment newsletters and Peak Oil Theory? We may never know.

After dropping from $147 last July close to $30 this past winter, crude oil is now trading within a reasonably tight track around $40 and $57.

Now it’s on the move again, breaking through $60 right at the beginning of the summer driving and hurricane seasons.

But oil companies’ proud profit margins of yesteryear have disappeared… along with the easy credit that allowed investment banks and hedge funds leverage crude prices to record highs.

Suddenly, not even the most pink politician is talking punitive taxation against oil companies any more. The euphemisms “surcharge” and “windfall profits” have gone with the wind. Share prices of Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) are down 30-40%… just like the rest of the market.

Our team of analyst has compiled a concise list of the five oil companies you should have in your portfolio. They represent a strategic selection… ranging from U.S. refiners benefiting from lower crude prices and tight inventories to tiny, undervalued oil producers working in regions that will represent a hotbed for demand from China and Russia.

Oil Stock #1: The Refiner

There are companies that have been benefiting nicely from oil’s reversal of fortune. Especially refiners, whose cost basis has been cut by 70% over last year’s peak, assisted by lower crude prices and a stronger dollar.

Take Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: CLMT). This U.S.-based refiner and maker of petro-based specialty products just reported Q1 net income of $75.6 million, compared to a net loss of $3.4 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Its adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million for Q1′09 reflects an increase of $35.2 million over Q1′08.

Despite the substantial drop in gasoline demand (Calumet’s quarterly sales actually fell 30% from the year-ago period!), the increase in gross profits was primarily due to the drop in crude oil prices.

Adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million for the first quarter of 2009.

The Indianapolis-based refiner and processor of specialty lubricants just declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.45 per unit on all outstanding units.

But let’s reminisce: The steepest increase in crude prices last year occurred in the second quarter. While the biggest drop in gasoline consumption appears to be behind us—mostly in Q4′08 and the past, dreary first quarter of 2009. Even if oil prices keep increasing from current levels, the cheaper inventory purchased in the past 6 months, combined with increasing demand, should make for a gangbuster second quarter.

Gasoline inventories were reported to have dropped by a larger-than-expected 4.1 million barrels in the second week of May, bringing current inventories to the middle of the historical average.

The stock today is trading at just under $13. Buy up to US$14 in the coming days, with a 25% profit horizon by July… when gasoline demand will stretch inventories and send U.S. refiners soaring.

Oil Stock #2: The Acquisition Target

The best part of the oil and natural gas business is its predictability. The last several years should be all the proof you need.

Here’s how the story goes: A soaring economy increases demand, which causes prices to surge. Eventually, demand reaches its peak, the market is oversupplied and prices fall. It’s classic economics.

Right now, according to my models, we are just past the peak of the fall, which makes this a fantastic buying opportunity.

Over the past six months, the world’s natural gas and oil producers could not close their valves fast enough. Nearly every week, we heard rumors of OPEC quietly cutting more and more production. Remember, less supply equals higher prices.

Now that many economists believe the worst of the financial fiasco is over, demand will begin to rise. Current reserves, which are significantly above historic averages, will dwindle and producers will be forced to open their valves once again.

But there is only one thing that will persuade them to get the energy flowing once again… prices. Futures traders are going to have to push oil and natural gas prices even higher before financially cautious companies open the tap.

That way, when they do start pumping, they know their pipelines will be filled with profits.

Watching Apache (NYSE:APA) and its burgeoning balance sheet, we tried to find out what company might be the target of a possible acquisition bid.

There are multiple possibilities, ranging from speculative companies with a large access to oil sands to some of the nation’s largest natural gas producers.

With energy prices making it tough to boost the bottom line, Apache and its competitors are surely going to use their cash and stock reserves to go on an acquisition spree. While I have my opinions, telling you what company I believe Apache will target would be a speculative guess at best.

We can make the same sort of profits, without the unnecessary risk: Instead of targeting one company and risk missing the mark if another target suddenly appears, why not take a stake in a company that will benefit no matter who buys what?

That company is Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC). With a Street value of about $23 billion, this company is not going to get acquired by anybody but the industries biggest players. If it were to happen, they would have to pay one hefty premium for a portfolio of global reserves.

It is an unlikely scenario.

What is likely is an up-tick in industry M&A activity that boosts the value of the entire sector, including Anadarko and its steady revenue stream.

By now, you have certainly heard of value-destroying flaws with mark-to-market accounting. As the value of a company’s assets drop, they must change their value on the balance sheet, whether the company intends to liquidate them or not. Anadarko just took a $240 million hit. It hurts now, but as energy prices slowly increase with a once-again expanding economy, the so-called flaws in mark-to-market accounting will look like a blessing.

At current prices, Anadarko is undervalued. If M&A activity kicks into high gear, it will look even more undervalued. And if energy prices continue their bullish surge, oh boy, shareholders will do quite well.

My recommendation is buy shares of Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) at or below $47. This is a mid-term play that could put 25% gains into your pocket within the next 6 months.

The energy industry just hit its earnings bottom, making this a great time to be a buyer, no matter if you are a shareholder or a major producer looking to acquire some extra growth.

Oil Stock #3: The Power Broker

Total S.A. (NYSE:TOT) acts as the big brother to the entire European energy-producing industry. This is a $130-billion, French-based conglomerate that has all the capital and power it needs to become a global dominator as Europe’s energy supply chain suddenly breaks.

TOT as was a $90 stock in June of 2008. It’s a $57 stock today. And it could be a $150 stock if crude prices continue to move and the EU is afraid of becoming too dependent on Russian energy imports.

Think of it Total as a football team’s back-up quarterback. With Russia in control of Europe’s natural gas supply, it is forced to sit on the sideline and watch the game unfold.

But as soon as Russia is checked, Total will run in and take the crowd by storm. It has everything it needs to be a continental dominator: The company has operations all across the globe, but is strategically positioning itself to take advantage of growth in Western Europe. It has operations in all of the key countries mentioned above.

But even better, it has a huge downstream business that will soar in value as Russia battles with the west. Just like it did this past winter!

Total has enormous amounts of refining capacity: Over 2.5 million barrels per day. In fact, it is the largest refiner in Western Europe. Even more important than Total’s industry-leading refining capacity is its ability to produce unfathomable amounts of natural gas. During the third quarter of this year, the company pumped the equivalent of more than four billion cubic feet of oil each day.

Total has staggering amounts of production capacity. At current levels of demand, the company has more than enough supply. But when Moscow gets aggressive and closes its pipelines, European demand will go through the roof. That means Total’s natural gas will sell for a premium. Its shareholders will get rich.

Sarkozy is hell-bent on making France the predominant player in the European Union.

France is all about advancing the interest of French industry. It’s one of the cornerstones of its policies. And it has always been the main directive of its government.

This means that Sarkozy will leverage the current crisis to the exclusive benefits of French companies. And the main beneficiary is Total.

Action Alert: Buy shares of Total (NYSE:TOT) at or below $58!

Oil Stock #4: Oil’s Great Game

BMB Munai Inc (AMEX:KAZ): The former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan rarely creates headlines in the American media. It is far more popular with Russia and China.

Both countries consider the Kazkhstan an important strategic point in Asia. And both love its oil and natural gas reserves.

The company you need to know about, BMB Munai, a tiny oil producer based in Kazakhstan. The company is young, financially well positioned and, more importantly, working in an ultra-rich, under-utilized part of the planet, the Caspian Sea.

This company has strong ties to the American and Russian government. Its current CEO used to be a big shot at Haliburton. He has “Inside-the-Beltway” written all over him…

How about the company’s chairman? Boris Cherdabayev has been a top employee at Exxon and Chevron. He has even worked for Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producer. And BMB Munai’s president, Askar Tashtitov? This guy used to be a government consultant.

When it comes to being politically connected, it doesn’t get any better than this. BMB Munai’s wholly-owned oil-pumping subsidiary, Emir-Oil, was even created by the Kazakhstan government. With a market cap of just $66 million, the company’s $1.40 share price could double, even triple with just one turn of a pipeline valve.

(In fact, we just saw an incredible 65% spike in a single day… caused merely by expectations that talks between the Kazakh Chamber of Commerce and a Chinese trade delegation from Sichuan Province would generate good news for Kazah oil.)

By investing in this stock, you are investing in the company the American and Russian governments expect to be (or should I say will make) the region’s next big oil producer.

Action Alert: Buy shares of BMB Munai (AMEX:KAZ) at or below $2.00.

Oil Stock #5: Striking Black Gold

The next company you need to know about is Toreador Resources (NASDAQ:TRGL).

Toreador has stakes in the energy-rich Black Sea, a region expected to have more than enough natural gas and oil reserves to power Turkey and its neighbors for a long, long time to come.

Toreador Resources will be a prime investment target when Russia resumes its hostile activities. It was part of a team that first discovered natural gas in the Black Sea. It has the tools and products to find oil where no other companies were successful. Because of its technological prowess, it is sitting on a huge stockpile of black gold.

When Russia invaded Georgia last summer, Toreador showed its potential to smart investors. Share price soared by as much as 30% in just a few days.

Imagine what could happen to this $70 million company if the stakes are even higher. If Turkey becomes the next big target like so many experts believe, shares of this $3.40 stock could easily be selling for as much as $20, or more.

Invest in Toreador Resources now and profit as the next global crisis unfolds. When these predictions come true, you will look like an investing prophet.

Action Alert: Buy shares of Toreador Resources (NASDAQ:TRGL) below $4.00.

Source:The Top 5 Oil Stocks for 2009