Thursday, November 20th, 2008

The Truth Behind U.S. Housing Market Headlines

Aug 27th, 2008 | By Chuck Butler | Category: Real Estate Investments

The latest round of U.S. housing market data is prompting another round of claims that “the worst is over.” Howver, The Daily Reckoning’s Chuck Butler says the nuances in the latest data paint an altogether more gloomy picture.

This from the New York Times:

“Home sales have begun to stabilize as sharply reduced prices lured buyers back into the market in July, according to a pair of reports issued this week. And prices, once plummeting at a breakneck pace, fell in June at a more moderate clip.

A report on Tuesday showed that in the 12 months through June, American home values dropped 15.9 percent, the biggest annual decline on record.

But the report offered signs that the pace of price declines is slowing. In June, nine cities recorded an increase in home values from the month before, with prices in Boston, Denver and Minneapolis all up at least 1 percent. That compared with increases in seven cities in May. For all 20 cities, prices fell 0.5 percent in June, after a 0.9 percent decline in May.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said that more Americans bought newly built homes in July, with sales up 2.4 percent to an annual pace of 515,000 units, less than the 525,000 expected by economists. The positive sales figure came a day after a private agents’ group reported that sales of previously owned homes rose 3.1 percent in July.”

Chuck says the July ‘recovery’ was made to look much rosier by the quiet downward revision of June’s sales data….

“The Housing Data was not as “great” as I heard the cheerleaders on TV carrying on about… Here’s the way I see the data… July New Home Sales rose 2.4%, and that’s the number the cheerleaders were shouting about… But what they failed to mention is that a good piece of that 2.4% rise came about because of the downward revision in the previous months’ numbers!

It breaks down like this… June’s number was revised down to 503,000 from a previously estimated 530,000. As a result, the level of sales in July of 515,000 was below market expectations of 521,000. Not so good looking now, eh? And June’s revised number of 503,000? Well, The revised June number represents the lowest level of activity since 1991! But you I bet you didn’t hear that on TV did you?.”


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By Chuck Butler

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About the Author

Chuck ButlerChuck Butler, is the author of The Daily Pfennig, which is republished at The Daily Reckoning. His respected analysis is frequently quoted in or referenced by: the Wall Street Journal, U.S. News and World Report, CBS Market Watch, USA Today, CNNfn, the Chicago Tribune and many other publications.

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The Daily Reckoning offers a "uniquely refreshing" perspective on the global economy, investing and the ability to live well in uncertain times. You will learn what you can expect from today's markets and how to prosper in the face of uncertainty.

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