There’s Still Money to Be Made from Banks
Aug 8th, 2008 | By John Stepek | Category: International InvestingBritish banks and their shareholders are having a tough old time of it. But their woes have made at least one person an awful lot richer.
Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has paid himself £28m after his hedge fund made £55m from betting against the sector. And well done to him. After all, plenty of banking executives got hefty bonuses last year for losing money, so people can hardly complain when someone gets a bonus for actually doing his job competently.
Now Mr Odey was apparently a bit early in his call. “We had a very average 2006 because he was positioned and it wasn’t working yet,” Odey Asset Management chief executive David Stewart told The Telegraph.
But it shows that it’s not true that no one saw the credit crunch coming. Sure, we may not have known exactly how the blow-up would manifest itself. But it was obvious to many people in the City and on Wall Street that something had to give.
The bad news for the banks is that it seems Mr Odey reckons there’s still a lot of money to be made from betting against them
There is more weakness ahead for the banks
Sources “close to” Odey Asset Management tell The Telegraph that “we can see why there might be a rally [in banking stocks] in the short term, but in the longer term we see more weakness ahead. Banks will need a lot more capital.”
It is certainly going to be tough out there. HSBC (LON:HSBA), one of the most resilient banks of the past year, reported more write downs yesterday (see: Why there’s more bad news to come from the banks for more). But perhaps the most worrying aspect of its results statement was its warning on the outlook for Asia.
Banks with emerging market exposure have been seen as sheltered from much of the carnage. But as HSBC chairman Stephen Green put it: “I don’t believe the emerging markets have completely decoupled. There is no way a serious downturn in the US will leave Asia immune.”
The group still expects the region to grow, but “with less momentum than in the recent past.” Profits at its Hong Kong unit fell 8% to $3.1bn, where “it is apparent that corporate activity in some sectors is slowing.”
Source: There’s Still Money to Be Made from Banks
Advertisement
The global derivatives market has soared from just over $1 trillion to a staggering $272 trillion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.
What's more disturbing, is that nearly 1/3 of these derivatives are concentrated in the hands of just 3 American banks.
The scamble to deleverage has blown these banks' delicately balanced derivatives portfolios off their axis. World markets are now teetering on the brink of an unprecedented collapse.
But you can protect your portfolio - and potentially reap huge gains - by accessing "secret" financial opportunities that are set to soar when the derivatives bubble bursts...Click here to read more.
John Stepek is Deputy Editor of the UK-based financial weekly MoneyWeek. He is also the editor of daily investment email Money Morning UK. John graduated from Strathclyde University in 1996. He has worked for a number of financial magazines and newsletters including Families in Business, Shares Magazine and The Sunday Times.