These 3 Sectors Should Be Part of Your Downturn Strategy
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We’re standing on the tracks and the train is coming, says Wayne Mulligan. But that’s no reason for investors to not play the market. Wayne says going long on discount retailers is the best way to profit from low consumer confidence. And with fuel prices on an unsustainable uptrend, investors should look to the alternative energy market. Meanwhile, the auto industry is facing ruin. A clear opportunity for shorting, says Wayne.
According to a recent survey, three-quarters of the American public think that we’re currently in a recession. The Dow is trading around the same price it was seven years ago and only seems to be heading lower.
Fuel and food prices are at all time highs and the employment picture is gradually getting worse.
And all of this on top of a housing crisis that has yet to fully take hold.
Depressed enough yet?
Basically, we’re standing on the tracks and the train is coming — I don’t need a PhD in economics to figure that much out — the only question is, do we stand here and let it hit us or do we get out of the way?
I’m voting for getting out of the way, who’s with me!?
But it’s not enough to just “get out of the way.” We’re investors; we should do whatever we can to profit from the current economic and market climate too.
On TickerHound, we’ve been seeing questions on this exact topic for the last couple of months, you can check out what some of the other members have had to say here:
What are the Top Three Investments for a Down Market?
I decided not to weigh in at the time; it was too tough to tell where things were headed. But I think the picture has become much clearer now and today I wanted to share where my trades will be focused for the second half of this year.
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Discount Retailers
Given the fact that the American consumer thinks we’re in a recession, it stands to reason that consumer spending will continue to slow this year. That means luxury goods or purchases that require large lump sum payments are going to get pushed to the back burner for the time being.
So what will consumers be buying?
The usual, of course: Groceries, medicine and maybe even some clothing.
Consumers will certainly continue to buy these items, but they’ll be very picky as to where they buy them. Meaning, I doubt you’ll see long lines at Gap Stores anytime soon, or baby boomers opting to buy brand name drugs as opposed to the generics. People will be extremely cost conscious as we head into the second half of the year.
That’s why it’s important we focus on retailers that cater to the cost conscious consumer.
For me, that means looking at stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT: NYSE) and Dollar Tree (DLTR: NASDAQ), both of which have done very well over the last six months.
So I’ll be looking to go long Discount Retailers.
Alternative Energy
Forget the green movement and all the damage we’re doing to our environment with current forms of energy production, let’s just look at what’s going on at the pumps every day. The price of fuel is rising and it doesn’t look like it’s coming down anytime soon.
What’s a gallon of gas going to cost by the end of the summer: $5.00? $5.50?
The bottom line is, our dependence on crude is killing our economy and many of our industries; everything from transportation to shipping.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that we’ll need to look for alternative sources of energy in the not-too-distant future.
But it would take a rocket scientist to know which companies will pan out in this emerging sector. So while I won’t be buying any individual companies just yet, I will, however, be looking to go long on some of the ETFs that cover the alternative energy market.
I’ve had my eye on several for a while now — PBW, QLCN and GEX, just to name a few.
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Automakers
This one is a no-brainer for me for the following reasons:
- Decreasing consumer spending
- Increasing cost of fuel
- Increasing cost of steel
A new car will certainly be out of the question for many American consumers for quite some time. I think food, water and medicine will be higher up on the priority list for most folks in this country.
So as this market continues to head south, so too will the Auto stocks.
Luckily for us it won’t be too hard to pick which automakers to short; they’re all performing equally poorly these days. So I’ll probably go ahead and short the Big Three for the near term. I can’t see any of them turning the corner anytime soon.
One of the most important lessons I ever learned in my years in the market is that as investors we can make money regardless of how the economy is doing. As long as we don’t get emotional, lose our cool or make decisions that go against the facts, we can come out of this downturn just fine.
So make sure you play this bear market, don’t let it play you. For more on this, read what my readers have written…
Source: Weighing in on Today’s Bear
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Tags: bear market, Dltr, Downturn Strategy, GEX, PBW, solar stocks, US stocks, Wayne Mulligan, Wind Energy Stocks, WMTAbout the Author
Wayne Mulligan is a contributing author to The Penny Sleuth.
The Penny Sleuth is free e-letter from Tom Bulford who shares his innermost thoughts, stories, projections and opiniosn on the UK's most exciting share market. Each issue reveal what every investor ought to know before investing in the small-cap market.