Three Winners from Cash for Clunkers
Aug 3rd, 2009 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Stock Market InvestingCash for Clunkers is driving up sales. Ford (NYSE:F) proves it doesn’t need the government, but some free money is always nice. Who else is profiting from Washington’s handouts?
How would you like to have been the guy that bought shares of Ford (NYSE:F) when they dipped to a 27-year low of $1.01 back in November? If you were lucky enough to have made the move, a thousand-dollar investment would now be worth just shy of $7,500.
Thanks to today’s news that the company saw its first year-over-year sales increase since late 2007, shares of the company are up by about 6%.
Of course the success comes to the detriment of its recently bankrupt competitors, General Motors and Chrysler, which announced declines of 19.4% and 9%, respectively.
While the quick billion-dollar burst of the Clash-for-Clunkers plan will get all the credit from Washington, there are several factors involved in the surge in buying.
First, with bankruptcy filings now in the history books, the market is filled with much less risk and uncertainty. That means wary buyers now know who will be around next year and who will be joining the growing list of economic casualties.
Of course, Cash for Clunkers is making its mark. But only time will tell if last month’s figures are destined to become an anomaly as the funding eventually dries up and vanishes or if buyers will continue shopping even when the free money runs out.
More importantly that what is compelling buyers to head back to dealerships is the list of companies bound to profit from the government’s free money and the turnaround in demand.
Who gets my tax dollars?
Ford is obviously one beneficiary. And with the market bidding shares of the company up today, the market has already spoken its obvious bullishness for the company’ s future revenue-generating potential.
Some other companies worthy of the attention they are getting today are the big dealerships, like Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH). Shares of the small-cap company are up by double-digit proportions as the market re-figures the impact of several billion dollars worth of new-car buying.
With nearly 140 dealership franchises, you can bet the company’s bean counters are preparing for a few extra zeroes on the next accounting statements, especially if the Senate caves later this week and dishes another round of cash.
Of course, the nation’s automotive supply chain runs deep. Some analysts even draw it as long as the corner donut shop down the street (blame the unions).
A bit further upstream than the donut shops, look at the action at ever-volatile Dana Holding (NYSE:DAN). Shares of the parts maker are soaring by 20% today as investors rush to get in before Detroit makes a rebound that mirrors the broad market’s recent moves.
Now, before you get all jumpy thinking today’s action will continue for weeks or even months, let me explain how hype-driven investments work.
Rule number 1: It doesn’ t last.
Rule number 2: If the government is in charge, be cautious.
Rule number 3: Take your profits and run.
This message is not so much for the folks looking to get into a few goods stocks, but for the investors looking for a signal to get out.
Volatility is getting sheepishly low. It scares me.
Stocks don’t like to make broad turnarounds when everybody is looking. Instead, they do it when nobody is looking. Or, more succinctly, when presidents exclaim, “mission accomplished.”
If you want to be greedy and stick it out, you have a few more days. But in auto industry, I am a seller, especially after today’s moves.
There are simply too many other under-valued, low-risk plays to be made to be investing in an industry running on government whims.
Source: Three Winners from Cash for Clunkers
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