Time to Invest in Japan?
Jun 25th, 2008 | By Eric Roseman | Category: International InvestingThe hot gossip these days among investors is all about the emerging markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Twenty years ago the talk would still have been about Asia. But one country in now gets written off as a has-been: Japan.
The land of the rising sun has far less of the exposure to toxic subprime loans that has blighted the Western economies. And it’s economy is charging ahead. In May Japanese exports grew twice as fast as expected.
Why? Because of demand from the rest of Asia, which many analysts say has helped Japan ‘decouple’ from the stumbling US economies and British economies.
Eric Roseman reckons it’s time to crash into the Nikkei like a foreigner at a tea ceremony…
Over the last several years, investing in Japan has been a difficult exercise in patience.
Despite offering some of the best stock market values in the world accompanied by a cheap currency, Japanese stocks have posted some of the worst returns. But at some point, I believe patient investors will make a small fortune in this country, especially speculating on volatile small-cap stocks.
Historically, big bear markets for Japanese smaller companies have eventually rewarded contrarians with big triple-digit gains of 100% or more once the selling ended. I’m expecting this to happen over the next 12-24 months.
Another reason to be patient with Japan is the country’s growing role as a distressed investor.
Japan, like most Asian countries, did not suffer significant sub-prime losses. Japanese banks have largely been conservative players on the world stage since crippling deflation in the early 1990s wiped-out a good chunk of shareholders’ equity. Many banks have emerged largely unscathed from the ongoing global credit crunch and banks are armed with pools of cash collected from Japanese savers.
On Friday, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (OTC:SMFJY) agreed to inject $925 million into distressed British bank, Barclays plc (NYSE:BCS). Though the amount is small relative to Sovereign Wealth Funds, it’s still part of a growing trend in Japan as banks expand their roles and accumulate distressed assets in Europe and the United States.
This marks a significant contrast to the 1980s. At the time, Japanese institutions loaded up on expensive California and New York real estate only to get burned when that “bubble” ended in 1989-1990.
Japan is one big contrarian value play. The market is extremely attractive from almost every valuations matrix and will lead major economy markets again in stock market performance. I just can’t say when.
I’m making yet another trip to Tokyo later in September to learn more about this great country and the huge values in equity markets. Stay tuned!
ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director
P.S. I can’t predict exactly when Japanese stocks will soar, but I can tell you WHAT will take off in the months and years to come: A combination of the Japanese yen and small-caps. That’s why I’ve recommended our Sovereign Society members load up on specific long-term Japanese small-cap and yen plays in our monthly newsletter, The Sovereign Individual. In this month’s issue, I flagged several buys in this mouth-watering sector. See page 14 of the July issue for details.
Not a member yet? Click here to get the biggest value we offer our readers: a 12-month glimpse into all our best ideas for our lowest rate yet.
Source: An Exercise in Patience…Why Japan Is ‘Still’ Worth It!
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Another reason to be patient with Japan is the country’s growing role as a distressed investor.
Eric serves as an editor and Investment Director for The Sovereign Society's Commodity Trend Alert. Eric's talents include blending a dozen or more alternative investment funds to produce consistent returns to traditional asset classes and making commodity based recommendations with huge upside and limited downside.
