The US economy will shrink in the second quarter, but avoid a recession this year, according to a UCLA Anderson Forecast.

According to the report, the “weakening job market is completely consistent with a longstanding forecast of a housing adjustment that is mostly confined to housing.”

According to Reuters: “The forecasting unit noted the economy has withstood the housing slump — especially eight consecutive quarters of declines in housing starts — because the homes market and jobs market have become disconnected.”

Warren Buffett, of course, disagrees. “Whether it is technically in a recession or not, we don’t know,” says Bill Bonner. “But it hardly matters. Across the board, indicators are signaling a slumpy economy.”

“The Fed’s remedy is to lend the banks more cash on better terms. The smart money is betting that Bernanke will cut rates again – a sixth time – this month. Not only that, but traders are looking for a big cut – 75 basis points.”

The argument about whether the US is in a recession is over, says Jody Clarke.

“The US is in recession. There’s simply no pretending otherwise – unless of course you are the chairman of the Fed, or one of the many fund managers with your future mortgaged to the US stock market.”

“The 63,000 decline in US non-farm payrolls in February is the clearest and most reliable indication yet that the economy is now in recession”, said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. And if you thought that was bad, the decline of 101,000 in private sector payrolls last month, compared to a modest 26,000 drop in January ’screams recession.’”