Want Big Profits? Go East in the Year of the Bear
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The “experts” got it wrong, again. You may recall the optimism our investment banking chums had for the stock market at the start of the year.
Well, we are now fighting a bear market… one that all the brains of the investment community did not see coming six months ago.
According to a report last December from the Association of Investment Companies, nearly two thirds of fund managers and three quarters of financial advisers were bullish on the prospects for the market in 2008.
Popular opinion thought that UK stocks would have turned the corner and we’d be back in the black.
How those views have changed!
Now, according to the FT, professional investors “are betting that the credit crunch will still be hurting banks at the end of 2010.”
Until 2010!
What a U-turn. Good lord.
This should serve as a warning as to the fallacy of predictions.
I don’t know where the FTSE will finish at the end of the year, nor do I pretend to.
Nonetheless, in this market it isn’t difficult to better the “experts’” predictions… even if using an Astrological forecast as my guide!
Not to be flippant (well, to be very flippant actually), but I reckon my astrological reading could compare favourably with the schizophrenic investment bankers at predicting the rest of the year’s market outlook.
And with the advent of the Olympics as well as the rise of emerging markets, this forecast has a Chinese twist.
2008 is the year of the rat, but personally I’m a bear… something I’m sure those of you with money in the markets can identify with in these tumultuous market conditions.
Courtesy of ProAstro (providers of astrology forecasts, lunar calendars and I-Ching predictions) here is the forecast for stock market fortunes this year:
Your sign is Bear…
“Bears are prone to be agitated this year.
“You are likely to experience instability in your financial relationship and will most probably end your current relationship and start afresh with a new paramour.”
Translation: Sell those bank stocks!
“This year is going to be one of huge changes in the lives of all bears and it is likely to make you feel gloomy and pessimistic.
“Instead of giving in, you should take charge of your life; travel abroad, learn something new. This will help alleviate your financial problems.”
Translation: Invest in overseas markets less exposed to the credit crunch.
“Bears born in autumn and winter should head either South or East. In order to lessen your financial problems it is vital that you take a trip in the recommended direction.”
Translation: Sell those bank stocks and invest in overseas markets less exposed to the credit crunch.
Spooky, eh?
I think the astrologists at ProAstro said it better than many of the analysts we’ve been entertaining over the past year.
And that alone demonstrates that we can’t waste time fretting over some prediction when there is the hard work of investing to be done here.
Making predictions that no one will hold you to is easy. It’s making stock picks that is the real challenge.
When opinion is so uncertain over where our market is going, focussing on companies not dependent on the UK economy is vital.
You may have noticed that bias towards overseas markets, like China, in my astrological reading. I’m not advising that you plump your money straight into the Chinese stock market. Instead, I’m recommending you invest in stocks that are tapping into the economic growth in these international markets.
The rising superpower grew by 7% last year, nearly double that of “advanced economies” — like the UK and US — that are looking recessionary this year.
In fact, economist Albert Keidel thinks this trend will run for years. The former World Bank and US Treasury Department reckons that by 2035 China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy.
So how do we play this indisputable boom?
By investing in companies exposed to Chinese demand.
Where can you find such opportunities?
Not through the investment banks whose skills are bettered by fortune-tellers, that’s for sure!
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