Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Was the Bank of England Right to Cut Interest Rates?

Apr 11th, 2008 | By Ben Traynor | Category: Politics & Economics

One quarter of one percent isn’t really that much, is it? Not when you compare yesterday’s Bank of England rate cut to the more aggressive measures taken by our cousins at the US Federal Reserve in recent months.

That seems to be the view of many this morning. Why didn’t the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) go further?

Those who hoped they would had their woes compounded yesterday. Signs are that the cut, already small, won’t be much felt by consumers. Nationwide, Royal Bank of Scotland, Alliance and Leicester and Britannia actually raised their rates yesterday.

So, in light of the fact that appears to have achieved little, was yesterday’s decision the right one? Should the MPC have gone further? Or (controversial), should it have stuck to its inflation-fighting mandate and left rates on hold? After all, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the measure of inflation against which the MPC is judged, rose by 2.5% in February. That’s half a percentage point above the MPC’s inflation target of 2%.

I think the MPC fudged it. It made a decision based on fighting recession, not inflation. But it couched that decision in language that makes a weak attempt to tie it to inflationary concerns.

“Credit conditions have tightened and the availability of credit appears to be worsening,” said an MPC statement yesterday. The MPC also added that the slowdown in the economy will create spare capacity and ease inflationary pressures.

Of course, it’s easy to sit on the sidelines and carp. The MPC had a very tricky call to make yesterday. But by straying from its core objective, it has ensured its credibility has taken a hit. That’s likely to mean even trickier decisions in the months ahead.

Retail market “ugly”, Sir Philip Green says

One person not impressed by the MPC’s move is fashion magnate Sir Philip Green. The Kate Moss groupie gave a profit warning for his BHS chain yesterday, and predicts a shake-out in the retail market, which he describes as “ugly.”

The whole sector worries Green, and he sees little chance that yesterday’s rate cut would revive demand and predicted that the “very challenging” conditions would sort out good retailers from bad.

Green stopped short of calling time on any of his retail rivals, though.


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“There is no one major who is in a sea of debt,” he said.But he did note that “there are a lot of smaller people around the edges that are not well capitalised and might fall over.”

If there’s one thing the market can’t stand, it’s profit warnings. To us, the domestic retail sector looks as ugly as Green says.

The US has plenty of money — but not enough to buy with it…

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By Ben Traynor

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Ben Traynor is a contributor to Fleet Street Daily of Fleet Street Publications.

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Fleet Street Daily

The financial markets are currently going through their most turbulent period in years. The credit crunch continues to bite… the dollar is collapsing (and taking the pound down with it)… and a UK recession seems an inevitability. Commodities prices are going haywire… Asia's on the rise... there's a lot for investors to keep on top of! And it's changing every day! That's where the Fleet Street Daily comes in. A brand new, 100% FREE service that keeps you plugged into the financial stories that really matter.

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