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Watch For Profit Plays As Russia Gets Desperate

Nov 13th, 2008 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Emerging Markets

Plunging crude oil prices and currency weakness are creating a crisis in Russia that makes the US look like a boomtown. Financial turmoil is mounting pressure on the Kremlin, says Andrew Snyder. And the resulting desperation could lead to some interesting profit plays.

This from Today’s Financial News:

If you think the situation is bleak here in the United States, you would wet your pants if you took an in-depth look at Russia’s economy.

Its stock market seems to be closed more than it is open. Its currency is plunging. And its government is running out of options and money to fix the situation. Russia makes America look like we are sitting atop a booming economy.

Putin’s downturn could lead to some easy profit potential. But more on that in a minute.

For nearly all of the last decade, Russia’s economy has been based on the country’s ability to sell its natural resources to Europe and countries all around the world at a steep premium. Its Urals blend crude is not the best oil on the market, but it is all over the place in Russia and buyers once lined up to get their hands on it.

But now that the line has all but vanished and Urals blend is worth less than $53 per barrel, the Russian government has seen its revenues slashed in half. The country’s 2009 budget depended on its oil selling for $95 per barrel. But as of today, the country was forced to revise its estimate to $50 for 2009 and $55 for 2010. That leaves a significant hole in the Putin’s financial plans.

Running out of rubles

To make up for the deficit, Russia is forced to tap its rainy-day fund, consisting of billions of dollars of tax revenues from the oil industry. It is a serious blow to a country that was finally started to regain some of its global superiority.

Even worse than the country’s budget problems is the severe drop in its currency. Even with key central bank interest rates at 12%, the value of the ruble continues to fall. For foreign investors measuring their portfolios in rubles, the losses are stacking up quick.

Investors cannot pull their money out of the Russian markets fast enough and have created a run on the Russia markets. It is creating a whirlpool of problems for the country, forcing it to consistently close trading on its major exchanges.

Unless Russia makes dramatic political moves to drive up the price of its natural resources, it is in serious financial trouble.

This is where your profit potential comes in.

We already know President-elect Obama is widely expected to be tested during the first few weeks of his term. The worse Russia’s economy gets, the more likely it is we will see trouble from Moscow.

Just a day into Obama’s transition Putin and Medvedev promised to move its short-range missile armory into an offensive position if America’s missile defense system in Poland is not dismantled. It is a sure sign of political pressure to come.

And now, Medvedev is calling to extend presidential terms to six years. Do you think that has anything to do with his goals of getting Putin and his offensive goals back in power?

I have been working overtime to find ways to profit from this Russian hostility and desperation. I found some surefire winners. I am putting the finishing touches on my full report, right now. I should have it online within a few days.

Source: Russia’s financial desperation will lead to trouble


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More on this topic (What's this?)
Russia Moves to Expand It’s Control of Oil Assets
Is Russia Now a de facto OPEC Member?
Read more on Investing in Russia at Wikinvest
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By Andrew Snyder

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About the Author

Andrew is a contributor to Daily Reckoning Australia and Today's Financial News.

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Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

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