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We’ve got a lot to remember and a lot to reckon with on this Memorial Day…the richest man in the world travels to Europe to seek out better investments…The Oracle of Omaha could write for The Daily Reckoning…putting the squeeze on the American family… Checking in on Cuba…and more!
Today is a holiday in Britain and America. But here at The Daily Reckoning, we are on the job – because there are things that need to be reckoned with.
Before we get down to serious reckoning, however, we give you a look at the news from the end of last week.
On Friday, the Dow fell another 145 points. Oil stuck around $132 and the dollar at $1.57 per euro. Gold rose to $925.
Remember when you could buy an ounce of gold for less than $100? We do. Remember when you could buy a gallon of gas for 25 cents? We do. What is Memorial Day for…but for remembering?
First, let us pause for a moment of silence, in honor of our ancestors, our veterans and our war dead. Like Pericles, we recognize that we have a big debt to the generations that went before us — their sacrifices have helped made us what we are…and made the country what it is. They saved. They invented. They built. What we see around us is mostly the result of their hard work…and many years of saving. If our ancestors had used up everything they produced, there would have been nothing left behind. But they didn’t. They left us their inventions and their constructions. They left us money, too. In the post-WWI period up until the mid-‘1980s, America was the world’s biggest creditor. More people owed more money to Americans than to any other nation. Public finances were occasionally stretched – such as during WWII itself – but from the founding of the republic almost until the Reagan years, each federal administration generally tried to leave the government cash till in about the same state it found it.
But in the space of a single generation, that huge legacy of capital and custom has been squandered. Now, the United States is the world’s greatest debtor – by a huge margin. Every year, it spends approximately 6% more than it earns. Its leaders have abandoned the virtuous practices of their ancestors. They no longer even pay them the homage of hypocrisy; they don’t even pretend to balance the budget, and the latest tally reported in these reckonings put the total unfunded liability at $61 trillion. This has effectively bankrupted the average family. It also turns every new baby in the U.S.A. into a major debtor – with more than $100,000 worth of unpaid bills –on the day he is born.
So we have a lot to remember this Memorial Day, and a lot to reckon with.
Warren Buffett was born in 1930. He must remember what the United States was like when it was still growing and genuinely prosperous.
“I’m fond of 1929,” said he a few months ago. “I was conceived that year and have always had an agreeable feeling towards the crash.”
Now, the richest man in the world, Buffett has come to Europe looking for better investments.
In an interview for Der Speigel, the Sage of the Plains said the United States was already in a recession and that it would be “deeper and longer than people think.”
He was in Madrid over the weekend, so we picked up a copy of El Pais to see what else he was saying.
When will growth in the U.S. economy pick up, the Spanish paper wanted to know?
“I have no idea,” Buffett replied.
When will the financial markets stabilize?” El Pais persisted.
“No idea about that either.”
So you see, Buffett could write for The Daily Reckoning; he would fit right in. Go ahead; ask us a question. We’ll give you the same answer Buffett gives:
We have no idea. But we do have opinions.
And in our opinion, George Soros is probably right when he says:
“The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years. However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.”
*** Yes, it was a super-boom that Soros describes. And it coincided with your author’s life. He was born at the beginning of it. He has now reached what he thinks is the end of it. That financial super-boom also probably marked America’s great peak – when everything went so well for so long that politicians and central bankers all wanted to claim credit for it.
But the tippy top of the peak also coincided with a number of trends and events that made it possible. Among the most important was a low oil price. Back in the ‘70s, the price of oil went to $30 – and shocked the world. It stayed around that level for 5 years, long enough to convince people that it was permanent. Consumers – especially in Europe – learned to live with less energy. Oil companies spent fortunes to produce more. And then the price plummeted back to $10…and world enjoyed a great boom.
That boom seems to be over, it drowned in the rising tide of the oil price. The black goo has gone up $50 a barrel since last September. The world’s consumers and producers should simply take the price clue with good grace – cutting back consumption and looking for new supplies, just as they did in the ‘70s.
That is what is happening. The oil companies are spending four times as much on exploration as they did eight years ago. And consumers are being forced to cut back too. But it is not all that is happening. Central banks are fighting the correction with everything they have – and all they have is cheap money.
As you know, the combination of higher fuel prices…and lower housing prices…is squeezing America’s family. Comes news at the end of last week that the typical house in California is down 32% from a year ago. The state also has the second highest foreclosure rate in the nation, with one out of every 204 houses going back to lenders.
The other thing putting pressure on U.S. family budgets is the price of food. For the 15 years, up to 2007, food prices rose only 2.5% per year. This was the “Great Moderation” that central banks felt so proud of. But in the last 12 months, food prices are said to be up 4%.
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Tags: Buffett, Cuba, economics, Emerging Markets, Euro Gold, falling dollar, Financial Crisis, Food Prices, Fuel Prices, gas prices, gold, Mid 1980s, oil, politics, Soros, Swiss Francs, US debt, US Housing MarketAbout the Author
Best-selling investment author Bill Bonner is the founder and president of Agora Publishing. Owner of both Fleet Street Publications and MoneyWeek magazine in the UK, he is also author of the free daily e-mail The Daily Reckoning and three best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving The Soft Depression of the 21st Century, Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets..
The Daily Reckoning offers a "uniquely refreshing" perspective on the global economy, investing and the ability to live well in uncertain times. You will learn what you can expect from today's markets and how to prosper in the face of uncertainty.