Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Strong Global Sales Makes Heinz (HNZ) One to Watch

Aug 21st, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Featured, Financial News, Politics & Economics

As soon as I saw the headline I knew what was coming.

Sure enough, as I read down the story, there it was in paragraph six.

It’s not that I claim to be clairvoyant, but I’m seeing this kind of news more and more frequently as earnings come out.

In this case, it was H.J. Heinz Co.’s (NYSE:HNZ) 1Q earnings.

The headline in question read: Strong Sales Boost Heinz’s Net.

Then I immediately started scrolling down the story until I found that particular nugget: “International sales rose at least 20% in every region and earnings were up in double-digits.”

For emerging market buffs, this kind of information now appears routinely. It happened with GM, Starbucks, Yum Brands…just about every major company has seen revenues grow outside the U.S. much faster than within our borders.

In the case of Heinz, while international sales rose 20%, revenue for the North American consumer-goods business rose 12% amid a 5% volume increase. At the same time, U.S. food-services revenue slipped 2.8% as volume dropped 4.3% amid lower ketchup sales because hinting that restaurants were cutting back, a reflection of slower traffic.

Heinz boss William R. Johnson said he’s been striving hard to expand the company into more emerging markets, and saw sales of the soy-sauce take off in Indonesia, while nutritional beverages sold well in India.

What does this to the individual investor?

If you’re doing research, you should definitely check into the revenues of international sales.

It’s no surprise to most investors that we are now operating in a truly global economy. What may come as a shock, however, is how quickly emerging market have come to dominate the earnings announcements of America’s largest corporations.

In the case of Heinz, the company raised the low end of its fiscal 2009 earnings guidance by four cents from previous estimates. The current range is $2.87 to $2.91 a share, while analysts have been expecting $2.90. Heinz is planning earnings per share to grow 8% to 11% in both fiscal 2009 and 2010, with organic sales up 6% or more.

But here’s the kicker: Emerging markets are expected to grow in the high teens over that period.

Keep your eyes peeled in upcoming earnings announcements and you’ll see what I mean. Pretty soon, like me, you’ll know what to expect.


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By Irwin Greenstein

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