Bottom line is that there is a long way to go before either the world economy or markets will be seen as functional. I continue to believe the data suggests we are still in a secular bear market and that valuations are not anywhere close to signaling a new bull market. Paying attention to daily market movements to confirm your bias one way or another is pointless. Daily market moves are random noise.

Pay attention to the fundamentals like earnings and valuation. In this type of market, you should be looking for absolute-return types of investing rather than relative-value index funds. And absolutely avoid anything linked to the US consumer or financial stocks unless you have some special knowledge of a specific situation. There are more write-downs and earnings disappointments to come.

Weddings, Baltimore, and South Africa

As noted above, I met with Steve Blumenthal and wealth manager Cliff Draughn at the Caves Valley Golf Club on Wednesday and Thursday this week for a quick trip to talk business and get in my first real game of golf in over two years. This maybe is the most beautiful course I have ever played, and Cliff was a great host. Oddly, as the game went on, I started to get some twinges in my right arm, but I thought it was just a little stiff from not playing golf for so long and tried to work it out. By the 17^th hole I just couldn’t follow through as the pain in the forearm was too much, and so I called it quits. The pain continued through the night coming back on the plane. And this morning I woke up to find my right forearm and up to my middle inner bicep was one ugly bruise. Not sure what happened. That is a first for me. But I worked through the pain and finished the letter tonight.

I will be in Cape Town, South Africa, on September 21-23 to do a speech. I will go back to Baltimore to attend my good friend of 25 years Bill Bonner’s 60^th birthday party the first weekend in September. He is the one of the best pure writers I know. You can read some of his essays and subscribe to the free Daily Reckoning (be warned: Bill is quite bearish) by clicking on the following link: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/mauldin.html

The wedding was a spectacular success, and I know Tiffani and Ryan will post pictures and video when they get back from South Africa. I have to confess that when I saw Tiffani she was so beautiful that I actually teared up, and then we both got misty-eyed. It was a very special moment. I surprised myself getting so emotional.

As I was walking through the dining area before the wedding, I noticed that they had put out a treasure chest on one of the tables. I assumed that it was for putting gifts into. As I walked by, I tried to lift the lid. Turns out it was a very realistic looking cake and I put my thumb through the top of the “lid.” Tiffani had personally designed every aspect of this wedding, and I had just left a very large impression on one part of it. When I sadly told Tiffani, she just laughed. She said it was such a “Dad thing” to do and made the night perfect. I just wish the Dad things I do weren’t so embarrassing. Oh, well.

As I did my toast, right before the fireworks, I welcomed Ryan into the family as Tiffani’s six brothers and sisters, plus in-laws, gathered around. Part of it went something like this. I mentioned to the crowd that Tiffani had been responsible for the total design of the tables, decorations, dinner, the flower arrangements, the (very) elaborate cake, etc. No detail went by without her input. And then I added:

“Ryan, the bad news is that you have married a lady who, just as she organized this wedding, is going to pay attention to every detail in your life, making sure you stay on your toes. I know that from personal experience from working with her for ten years. But the good news is that she will also make your life as beautiful as this wedding. You have my treasure. Take care of her.”

Your still misting up analyst,

John Mauldin

Source: Whatever Happened to Decoupling?

Pages: 1 2 3 4

Pages: 1 2 3 4