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Why Africa Could be a Safe Haven from America’s Woes

Mar 28th, 2008 | By Jody Clarke | Category: Gold Market

A gemstone stock worth snapping up. Visiting the offices of gemstone miner Tanzanite One, in northern Tanzania, gives you a whole different view of Africa from the grimmer images normally associated with the continent.

In ones and twos, the Massai arrive at the company’s Arusha office on flash new mopeds, their tartan ponchos slung over their shoulders. They have the latest cell phones glued to their ears. One for business, another for the wife, and as Tanzanite One’s then chief executive Ian Harbottle, explained to me when I visited the site, “another for the mistress.”

Inside though, the 50 or so locals had other things on their mind, as they awaited their turn to show off the blue tanzanite gems they’d found on their own digs. When ready, they’d watch the jeweller meticulously cast his loupe over their tanzanite, before weighing them for quality. After a wait of an hour or so, they could walk out with as much as $2,000-$3,000. Not bad for two or three weeks’ work.

Tanzanite has been good to Arusha. And Arusha, nestled under the icy glaze of Mount Kilimanjaro, has returned the favour for Tanzanite One, which earlier this month, reported a doubling in profits for 2007.

But it’s not just gemstone production that’s booming in Africa…


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Business is booming in Africa. And it’s not just benefiting the high and mighty. Having expanded by 6% a year since 2004, sub-Saharan Africa is expect to grow 7% this year, on the back of booming demand for commodities. Oil, gas, gold and copper are all found in vast quantities on the continent, as well as some as some of the odder gemstones you might not have heard of.Why you should get into gemstones

Tanzanite One has proved itself adept at mining one of them. The world’s largest producer of the blue-hued gemstone, it saw full year profits more than double in 2007. Net income rose 267% to $6.6m, or 8.58 cents a share, from $1.8m, or 2.3 cents a year earlier, on the back of a 38% rise in production. Demand for the rare blue gem has also increased, partly down to Tanzanite One’s canny positioning of the gem as a ‘birthstone’. A man is meant to give it to his wife on the birth of their first baby, a marketing tool which echoes De Beers’ successful campaign to associate diamonds with getting engaged.

Prices for gemstones are doing well, says Scott Finlay, an analyst with London-based Canaccord Adams “and historically, have appreciated when the US dollar has weakened. So getting into gemstone producers right now is a good strategy,” he says citing Tanzanite One and Gemfields, an emerald miner, as two examples.

We certainly like Tanzanite One, and have done for a while. But bounty lies elsewhere in Africa too, and the City here in London is wide awake to the possibilities it’s thrown up. Last year saw the launch by Fidelity of the Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa fund, which invests in South Africa, Morocco and Egypt, followed not long after by the New Star Heart of Africa Fund. Cru Investent Management recently launched their own Africa fund. And the timing is no coincidence.

Frontier markets could prove resilient

Frontier markets, the sort of economies that hitherto would have scared off all but the boldest or most reckless investors, could prove to be quite resilient to a US recession. That’s down to the low correlation they have historically shown with developed markets.

Over the past seven years, frontier markets such as Kenya’s and Tanzania’s have had a low correlation with that of the MSCI World index, which represents equities in developed economies. It stood at 0.4, against 0.8 for emerging markets (a correlation of one would mean the two markets move in lockstep).

So as the Dow Jones and US dollar continue to tick down, it might not be a bad idea to start buying some tanzanite, or Tanzanite One at least. And Africa, for that matter.

Do bear in mind however, that frontier markets aren’t called frontier for nothing – only invest money that you can afford to lose, or at least see subjected to fairly volatile movements. If you’re looking for a fund, all require sizeable initial investments, but New Star’s Heart of Africa fund, can be bought through a fund supermarket such as Hargreaves Lansdown, which enables you to invest less than the minimum investment of £12,500 which applies if you go direct to the fund manager.


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By Jody Clarke

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About the Author

Jody ClarkeJody joined MoneyWeek UK at the beginning of 2006. Clarke graduated with an LLB in Law and European Studies from The University of Limerick in Ireland and an MSc (Ag) in International Development at University College Dublin. He worked for the United Nations World Food Programme as an intern. where he completed his paper on the impact of HIV/AIDS, Weak Governance and Drought on Sub-Saharan Food Security.

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