With the Energy Department’s Prediction for Gasoline Prices, the ‘Experts’ Get it Wrong Yet Again

By William Patalon III

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How does the prospect of $4 a gallon gasoline sound to you? Undoubtedly, it doesn’t sound all that great. But what if I said that gasoline prices were headed for the $4 a gallon level, but once they got there, they’d head no higher? Accompanied by that reassuring bit of alleged “certainty,” gasoline at $4 a gallon doesn’t sound quite so scary. In other words, we know that gas prices are headed higher, but we also know that there’s a limit, and we know exactly what that limit is.

Early last week, the U.S. Department of Energy said that it expects average monthly gasoline prices to peak at $3.60 a gallon this spring, since that high price will serve to curb demand and keep prices in check.[although even the Energy Department report said that before prices level off there could be interim price spikes that will take pump prices up over the $4 a gallon level].

With crude oil having spiked above the $112 a barrel level last week on reports of declining oil supplies, grandstanding politicos on both sides of the aisle took the opportunity to bash each other’s energy policies [Don’t tell me … it must be an election year]. Seeming to add credibility to the Energy Department’s prognostication was last week’s weekly inventory report that showed that demand is waning - ostensibly because record gas prices now stand more than 55 cents a gallon higher than they were at this time last year.

But here’s the problem. The Energy Department is wrong. Thankfully, that’s not true of Money Morning. Since its inception last year, Money Morning has repeatedly predicted incrementally higher prices for crude oil and gasoline. Invariably, these predictions have proved themselves correct. And we’ve done more than just make predictions: We’ve also outlined investment opportunities that would allow investors to capitalize on this advance in energy prices.

In December, for the first time ever, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald publicly predicted that oil prices would reach $187 a barrel within three years. In mid-March, he reiterated this projection [accompanied by several suggested ways for investors to profit from this powerful trend]. Not only has this forecast continued to receive widespread play on energy- and investment-related Web sites, we’re starting to see similar “me too” predictions being made by some the energy sector’s heavyweight experts: Literally only days after Money Morning reiterated its forecast, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said that crude oil prices would reach $175 a barrel in the next two years.

This underscores one of the key mandates for Money Morning. While it’s true that we’re the hottest global-investing news service in the market today, this case study demonstrates that we’re more than just a purveyor of news. Our role is to provide our regular readers and subscribers with the news, of course, but it’s more important for us to explain just what the news actually means. To that end, look for us to:

  • Put the news in context.
  • To describe how the issue at hand fits in with the handful of powerful global trends that we’ve ferreted out and identified as the top ones that you need to follow if you’re to succeed and profit.
  • To stay ahead of the crowd by projecting the “end game” - the outcome - for these top trends.
  • And, finally, to research and highlight investment opportunities that are the best-positioned to benefit from these trends, meaning these represent some of the best profit opportunities in the market today [Editor’s Note: If this investing strategy appeals to you, it’s well-worth checking out our affiliated monthly newsletter that maintains several portfolios of stocks and funds chosen using these guidelines. New subscribers get a free copy of investment guru Jim Rogers’ new best-seller, “A Bull in China.”]

Stay tuned: We’ll continue to follow the oil-and-gasoline saga as it unfolds, and we’ll continue to find ways for investors to profit from this and other top global trends.

Last Week’s Market Action

 

Market/Index

Previous Week
(04/04/08)

Current Week
(04/11/08)

YTD Change

Dow Jones Industrial

12,609.42

12,325.42

-7.08%

NASDAQ

2,370.98

2,290.24

-13.65%

S&P 500

1,370.40

1,332.83

-9.23%

Russell 2000

713.73

688.16

-10.17%

Fed Funds

2.25%

2.25%

-200 bps

10 yr Treasury (Yield)

3.48%

3.47%

-57 bps

If you’re of a certain age, surely you remember some of the marketing “slogans” airlines used to burnish their brand names and, hopefully, to attract passengers. attract passengers.

After all, whatever happened to: “We Earn our Wings Everyday,” or “Fly the Friendly Skies,” or even “Something Special in the Air?”

Last week, however, the more appropriate taglines may have well have been: “We No Longer Overlook Safety,” or “Enjoy Your Stay in the Updated Airport Concourse,” or even better “When the FAA Talks, We Now Listen.”

As if the escalating gasoline prices have not caused enough hardships for the airlines, in recent weeks, they seemed to realize that they actually are required to abide by government safety regulations. Just last week, American Airlines Inc. (AMR) canceled more than 3,000 flights, thus, inconveniencing an estimated 250,000 travelers because a little faulty wiring “may” cause fires in certain aircraft. While some analysts were astonished at the lapse in judgment exercised by AMR’s airline management, others believed this to be classic bureaucratic overreaction due to previous lax oversight. In any case, the airlines undoubtedly will see their future earnings suffer and ticketed customers will experience extended delays [forcing them to seek out the closest Chili’s Bar & Grill inside the airline terminal - at least perhaps representing a boon for the earnings for that company].

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About the Author

William Patalon IIIWilliam (Bill) Patalon III is the Managing Editor and Senior Research Analyst for Money Morning, and is also the Managing Editor for The Money Map Report. Patalon's work has appeared in Kiplinger's personal finance magazine, USA Today, and The South China Morning Post, among other publications.

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We’re in the midst of the greatest investing boom in almost 60 years -- a boom that's not about to end anytime soon. Money Morning helps you profit from this seismic shift in the global economy with ahead-of-the-curve reports on China, Japan and other investing hot spots.

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There Are 3 Responses So Far. »

  1. […] December, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald publicly forecast that oil prices will reach $187 a barrel within three years. In mid-March, he reiterated this […]

  2. […] accurate. In December, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald publicly forecast that oil prices will reach $187 a barrel within three years. In mid-March, he reiterated this projection. addthis_url = […]

  3. […] Another oil price prediction that is proving scarily accurate is Keith Fitz-Gerald’s forecast that oil prices will reach $187 a barrel within three years. Read on here to find out why Keith thinks oil is heading for $187 a barrel and why the energy &#8216… […]

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