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<channel>
	<title>Contrarian Profits</title>
	<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com</link>
	<description>Stock marketing investing news and opinion from a contrarian perspective with insights about commodities, gold investing, oil, energy, china, the Fed, inflation, deflation, and global markets</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:12:11 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Fannie and Freddie Bailout to Cost Taxpayers $25bn</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-bailout-to-cost-taxpayers-25bn/4026</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-bailout-to-cost-taxpayers-25bn/4026#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:41:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kate Incontrera</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[FNM]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[FRE]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Kate Incontrera]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[President Bush]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[subprime crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US Banking]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US housing crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-bailout-to-cost-taxpayers-25bn/4026</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Does the term 'hemorrhaging money' mean anything to you?</p>
<p>It should, says Kate Incontrera in The Daily Reckoning.</p>
<p>Because the <strong>housing bill</strong> approved by Congress yesterday will cost taxpayers $25 billion in fiscal years 2009 and 2010, according to the <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/95xx/doc9574/07-22-GSEs.htm" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Congressional Budget Office</a>. And it could wind up costing up to $100 billion in the long term.</p>
<p>The bill is also a <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/housing-bill-a-major-threat-to-privacy/4014" title="Read more at ContrarianProfits.com.">major threat to privacy</a>, according to Desidooru Saloon's Dave Gonigam... <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/capitolhill.jpg" title="capitolhill.jpg"></a><span id="hy_n6" lang="ES-AR"></span><!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>The big news this morning is that President Bush has dropped his threat of a veto for the housing bill that will bail both Fannie Mae <span id="sm1_6" lang="ES-AR">(<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFNM" id="hy_n1">FNM</a>) </span>and Freddie Mac <span id="hy_n6" lang="ES-AR">(<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFRE" id="hy_n7">FRE</a>)</span> out, and also offer relief to homeowners that have gotten in over their heads and now run the risk of foreclosure.</p>
<p>CNNMoney.com reports that the legislation would allow the Federal Housing Agency to insure up to "$300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for at-risk borrowers in owner-occupied homes if their lenders agree to write-down their loan balances to 90% of the current appraised value of their homes...The cost of the FHA program - which would begin on October 1 and be in place for just a few years - would be funded by fees from Fannie and Freddie."</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>And of course, since Fannie and Freddie are seriously ill-equipped to offer up those kinds of funds at the present moment, the bill would allow the Treasury broad powers that would provide the mortgage giants with liquidity and a "capital background" - basically an unlimited line of credit.</p>
<p>It is generally understood that this will leave U.S. taxpayers with a gigantic bill to pay - in fact, yesterday the Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of the "rescue" at $25 billion, and said there is a chance that it could end up costing the U.S. government $100 billion in the long term.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/fannie-freddie-veto/2008/07/24/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Fannie and Freddie Say Goodbye to Veto">Fannie and Freddie Say Goodbye to Veto</a></p></blockquote>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does the term 'hemorrhaging money' mean anything to you?</p>
<p>It should, says Kate Incontrera in The Daily Reckoning.</p>
<p>Because the <strong>housing bill</strong> approved by Congress yesterday will cost taxpayers $25 billion in fiscal years 2009 and 2010, according to the <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/95xx/doc9574/07-22-GSEs.htm" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Congressional Budget Office</a>. And it could wind up costing up to $100 billion in the long term.</p>
<p>The bill is also a <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/housing-bill-a-major-threat-to-privacy/4014" title="Read more at ContrarianProfits.com.">major threat to privacy</a>, according to Desidooru Saloon's Dave Gonigam... <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/capitolhill.jpg" title="capitolhill.jpg"></a><span id="hy_n6" lang="ES-AR"></span><!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>The big news this morning is that President Bush has dropped his threat of a veto for the housing bill that will bail both Fannie Mae <span id="sm1_6" lang="ES-AR">(<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFNM" id="hy_n1">FNM</a>) </span>and Freddie Mac <span id="hy_n6" lang="ES-AR">(<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFRE" id="hy_n7">FRE</a>)</span> out, and also offer relief to homeowners that have gotten in over their heads and now run the risk of foreclosure.</p>
<p>CNNMoney.com reports that the legislation would allow the Federal Housing Agency to insure up to "$300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for at-risk borrowers in owner-occupied homes if their lenders agree to write-down their loan balances to 90% of the current appraised value of their homes...The cost of the FHA program - which would begin on October 1 and be in place for just a few years - would be funded by fees from Fannie and Freddie."</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>And of course, since Fannie and Freddie are seriously ill-equipped to offer up those kinds of funds at the present moment, the bill would allow the Treasury broad powers that would provide the mortgage giants with liquidity and a "capital background" - basically an unlimited line of credit.</p>
<p>It is generally understood that this will leave U.S. taxpayers with a gigantic bill to pay - in fact, yesterday the Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of the "rescue" at $25 billion, and said there is a chance that it could end up costing the U.S. government $100 billion in the long term.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/fannie-freddie-veto/2008/07/24/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Fannie and Freddie Say Goodbye to Veto">Fannie and Freddie Say Goodbye to Veto</a></p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>New Home Loans Fall 67%. How Far Will Housing Drop?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/new-home-loans-fall-67-how-far-will-housing-drop/4033</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/new-home-loans-fall-67-how-far-will-housing-drop/4033#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:25:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben Traynor</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Ben Traynor]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[BRH]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[subprime crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/new-home-loans-fall-67-how-far-will-housing-drop/4033</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>"The record low numbers of mortgages means that the whole market is likely to be at its least active since the early 1990s". That’s the assessment of one David Dooks, statistics director at the British Banking Association (BBA). The BBA reports that 21,118 mortgages for new homes were approved last month. <!--more--></p>
<p>That’s 23% lower than May, and a massive 67% lower than June 2007.</p>
<p>The weak housing market is, of course, nothing new. What we’re seeing is shades of grey getting even greyer — each month’s news being worse than the month before.</p>
<p>The question is, how grey will things get? No one can say with certainty, but we do have clues. They give us an inkling of what’s going on beneath the surface...</p>
<p>You see, keeping a roof over your head is one of the most important goals any of us has. My grandma used to say:</p>
<p>"Always get your rent paid before anything else. Even if you go a bit hungry, you’ll have somewhere to sleep." (She hails from an era before actually owning your home was considered vital to existence — hence the reference to rent).</p>
<p>It’s a fair assumption that most people will forego the majority of other expenditures to meet the basic requirement of shelter. Yet, at the margins, more are finding themselves unable to meet said requirement.</p>
<p>The number of repossessed properties going at auction rose 64% in the first half of the year. And the Council of Mortgage Lenders reckons total repossessions will rise to 45,000 — a jump of 50%.</p>
<p>The absolute numbers aren’t that big. But that’s not the important issue here. What these figures show us is that more of the strugglers are going under.</p>
<p>For every homeowner that can’t keep up repayments, there are many others that are only just managing. It paints a less-than-rosy picture of homeownership — something that this time last year was the dream of so many.</p>
<p>Commentators are quick to blame the tight-as-a-drum credit market for the lack of activity in the housing market. Reluctant lenders are certainly a factor. But far more important is the negative sentiment of would-be buyers — both those who own no home at all, and those who might, in better times, have been tempted to trade up.</p>
<p>Bad sentiment lingers. So even if lenders loosen their purse strings — which they’ll have to eventually to stay in business — we’ll still see depressed volumes.</p>
<p>Indeed, some analysts have forecast that house prices could fall another 15% by the end of the year. Not only that, they could be 30% lower by the end of 2009.</p>
<p>Of course, none of this matters directly if you own a home you can afford and you’re happy to continue living in it. But, indirectly, it affects us all.</p>
<p>Remember how I said people will cut back on most things in order to pay the mortgage? Well, that seems to be exactly what’s happening — though it’s taking time to work itself through.</p>
<p>This morning’s official retail figures show that sales volume rose 0.6% in the three months to the end of June. Now, that’s still growth. But it’s down from 1.6% in the three months to May. That suggests a pretty sharp slowdown in June. In fact, it’s the biggest fall in growth for 22 years.</p>
<p>Sad to say, but we’re still in the early days of all this.</p>
<p>Buckle up!</p>
<p>[NB: With all the doom and gloom we’re seeing right now, it’d be easy to think there’s nothing at all worth investing in. But the best investments are often made when sentiment is at its lowest. Our sister publication, The Fleet Street Letter, has recently published a report that details how you could turn the current UK situation to your advantage. <a href="http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/greatestopportunity?EFSLD738" target="_blank">Find out more right here]</a></p>
<p><strong>Venture Capital Wars — a tale from the wreckage of the private equity boom<br />
<em>By our small-cap specialist Tom Bulford</em></strong></p>
<p>These are tough times for the private equity industry, that shady group that provides for private companies both finance, and advice of uncertain value.</p>
<p>Key to the success of many private equity firms is their ability to source the capital required to support their investee businesses, and also a buoyant small company section of the stock market on which these companies can eventually be floated.</p>
<p>Today finance is hard to come by and the new issue market has slowed to a crawl. One company that has made a move to do something about this is the Braveheart Investment Group (LON:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Braveheart+Investment+Group&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den">BRH</a>), which as the name suggest is a Scottish outfit. Braveheart gathers funds from individuals and other private and public sector sources and invests them into about ten new situations each year, concentrating on emerging technologies some of which emerge from University research.</p>
<p>Its shares have fallen by some 40% since Braveheart came onto AIM last march, but if this is disappointing it is nothing compared to the experience of another private equity firm ANGLE, the shares of which have sunk by 80% in the four years of its stock market existence.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/small-cap/aim-companies/venture-capital-wars-00313.html">You can read this article in full HERE.</a></p>
<p><strong>Your questions answered</strong></p>
<p>If I were a young, ambitious, management consultant-type, I’d do this next bit very differently. I’d knock up a glitzy PowerPoint presentation, put on a headset, and invite you to a big auditorium to hear me talk about my vision for Fleet Street Daily.</p>
<p>"I want Fleet Street Daily to be a two-way street," I’d say. And then I’d say more stuff about visions, probably.</p>
<p>Fortunately, though, I’m not that sort of fellow. But I do share the above sentiment.</p>
<p>You see, one of the things I enjoy most about editing this e-letter is the dialogue with readers. Now I want to "kick things up a gear" as they say.</p>
<p>We’re entering a very uncertain period. So I’m asking you to send us any questions you have about investing. It can be about anything — the state of the FTSE, the price of oil, you name it.</p>
<p>Of course, time constraints mean it won’t be possible to answer every single question we get. So each week I’ll pick out the best. The editors here will get our heads together, and I’ll publish our thoughts on the chosen questions the following week.</p>
<p>Send your questions to: askfleetstreet@fspinvest.co.uk</p>
<p>I look forward to hearing from you.</p>
<p>Until tomorrow</p>
<p>Ben Traynor</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/economy/housing-market/new-home-loans-fall-00098.html">New Home Loans Fall 67%. How Far Will Housing Drop?</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>"The record low numbers of mortgages means that the whole market is likely to be at its least active since the early 1990s". That’s the assessment of one David Dooks, statistics director at the British Banking Association (BBA). The BBA reports that 21,118 mortgages for new homes were approved last month. <!--more--></p>
<p>That’s 23% lower than May, and a massive 67% lower than June 2007.</p>
<p>The weak housing market is, of course, nothing new. What we’re seeing is shades of grey getting even greyer — each month’s news being worse than the month before.</p>
<p>The question is, how grey will things get? No one can say with certainty, but we do have clues. They give us an inkling of what’s going on beneath the surface...</p>
<p>You see, keeping a roof over your head is one of the most important goals any of us has. My grandma used to say:</p>
<p>"Always get your rent paid before anything else. Even if you go a bit hungry, you’ll have somewhere to sleep." (She hails from an era before actually owning your home was considered vital to existence — hence the reference to rent).</p>
<p>It’s a fair assumption that most people will forego the majority of other expenditures to meet the basic requirement of shelter. Yet, at the margins, more are finding themselves unable to meet said requirement.</p>
<p>The number of repossessed properties going at auction rose 64% in the first half of the year. And the Council of Mortgage Lenders reckons total repossessions will rise to 45,000 — a jump of 50%.</p>
<p>The absolute numbers aren’t that big. But that’s not the important issue here. What these figures show us is that more of the strugglers are going under.</p>
<p>For every homeowner that can’t keep up repayments, there are many others that are only just managing. It paints a less-than-rosy picture of homeownership — something that this time last year was the dream of so many.</p>
<p>Commentators are quick to blame the tight-as-a-drum credit market for the lack of activity in the housing market. Reluctant lenders are certainly a factor. But far more important is the negative sentiment of would-be buyers — both those who own no home at all, and those who might, in better times, have been tempted to trade up.</p>
<p>Bad sentiment lingers. So even if lenders loosen their purse strings — which they’ll have to eventually to stay in business — we’ll still see depressed volumes.</p>
<p>Indeed, some analysts have forecast that house prices could fall another 15% by the end of the year. Not only that, they could be 30% lower by the end of 2009.</p>
<p>Of course, none of this matters directly if you own a home you can afford and you’re happy to continue living in it. But, indirectly, it affects us all.</p>
<p>Remember how I said people will cut back on most things in order to pay the mortgage? Well, that seems to be exactly what’s happening — though it’s taking time to work itself through.</p>
<p>This morning’s official retail figures show that sales volume rose 0.6% in the three months to the end of June. Now, that’s still growth. But it’s down from 1.6% in the three months to May. That suggests a pretty sharp slowdown in June. In fact, it’s the biggest fall in growth for 22 years.</p>
<p>Sad to say, but we’re still in the early days of all this.</p>
<p>Buckle up!</p>
<p>[NB: With all the doom and gloom we’re seeing right now, it’d be easy to think there’s nothing at all worth investing in. But the best investments are often made when sentiment is at its lowest. Our sister publication, The Fleet Street Letter, has recently published a report that details how you could turn the current UK situation to your advantage. <a href="http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/greatestopportunity?EFSLD738" target="_blank">Find out more right here]</a></p>
<p><strong>Venture Capital Wars — a tale from the wreckage of the private equity boom<br />
<em>By our small-cap specialist Tom Bulford</em></strong></p>
<p>These are tough times for the private equity industry, that shady group that provides for private companies both finance, and advice of uncertain value.</p>
<p>Key to the success of many private equity firms is their ability to source the capital required to support their investee businesses, and also a buoyant small company section of the stock market on which these companies can eventually be floated.</p>
<p>Today finance is hard to come by and the new issue market has slowed to a crawl. One company that has made a move to do something about this is the Braveheart Investment Group (LON:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Braveheart+Investment+Group&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den">BRH</a>), which as the name suggest is a Scottish outfit. Braveheart gathers funds from individuals and other private and public sector sources and invests them into about ten new situations each year, concentrating on emerging technologies some of which emerge from University research.</p>
<p>Its shares have fallen by some 40% since Braveheart came onto AIM last march, but if this is disappointing it is nothing compared to the experience of another private equity firm ANGLE, the shares of which have sunk by 80% in the four years of its stock market existence.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/small-cap/aim-companies/venture-capital-wars-00313.html">You can read this article in full HERE.</a></p>
<p><strong>Your questions answered</strong></p>
<p>If I were a young, ambitious, management consultant-type, I’d do this next bit very differently. I’d knock up a glitzy PowerPoint presentation, put on a headset, and invite you to a big auditorium to hear me talk about my vision for Fleet Street Daily.</p>
<p>"I want Fleet Street Daily to be a two-way street," I’d say. And then I’d say more stuff about visions, probably.</p>
<p>Fortunately, though, I’m not that sort of fellow. But I do share the above sentiment.</p>
<p>You see, one of the things I enjoy most about editing this e-letter is the dialogue with readers. Now I want to "kick things up a gear" as they say.</p>
<p>We’re entering a very uncertain period. So I’m asking you to send us any questions you have about investing. It can be about anything — the state of the FTSE, the price of oil, you name it.</p>
<p>Of course, time constraints mean it won’t be possible to answer every single question we get. So each week I’ll pick out the best. The editors here will get our heads together, and I’ll publish our thoughts on the chosen questions the following week.</p>
<p>Send your questions to: askfleetstreet@fspinvest.co.uk</p>
<p>I look forward to hearing from you.</p>
<p>Until tomorrow</p>
<p>Ben Traynor</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/economy/housing-market/new-home-loans-fall-00098.html">New Home Loans Fall 67%. How Far Will Housing Drop?</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Five &#8216;D&#8217;s of a Sick Monetary System</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/4030/4030</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/4030/4030#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:25:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Mayer</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Politics &amp; Economics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Chris Mayer]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Us Inflation Rate]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/4030/4030</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><span class="Body_Text">Capital &amp; Crisis </span><span class="Body_Text">editor Chris Mayer recently attended the inaugural meeting of the Society for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Austrian Economic Thought</a>.</span> At the meeting Chris picked up on what <span class="DR_Nav_Green"><span class="Body_Text">Dr. Andre Homberg, the organizer of the event, laid it out </span></span>as the five 'D's of a sick monetary system...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text"></span><span class="Body_Text">- Delusions - the notion that "the welfare state can provide everyone with a free lunch and a reliable pension and health care"<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Deficits and Debts - the accumulation of enormous fiscal imbalances, particularly in the public sector<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Dollars - the debasement of the dollar and reckless credit expansion<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Derivatives - Dr. Homberg pointed out that the notional value of derivatives topped $1,000 trillion, as per a recent IBS report. "This excessive leverage could implode anytime and make the U.S. subprime debacle look like a day at the beach," he said.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">The end result of all this?</span></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">According to Dr. Homberg: "The prices of everything that you must have will escalate at a speed that you will not believe. The prices of energy and fuel will continue to spiral higher. Food and water prices will accelerate upward and will result in a lower standard of living for yourself, your family and your loved ones."</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">PS:<strong> </strong>This was taken from a recent issue of Capital &amp; Crisis. To read more of Chris's expert analysis, <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/FST/EFSTJ212/">click here</a>.</span></p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/DR_07/Archives/DRArchives2008-2.html">The Inovator, the Imitator and the Idiot</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="Body_Text">Capital &amp; Crisis </span><span class="Body_Text">editor Chris Mayer recently attended the inaugural meeting of the Society for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Austrian Economic Thought</a>.</span> At the meeting Chris picked up on what <span class="DR_Nav_Green"><span class="Body_Text">Dr. Andre Homberg, the organizer of the event, laid it out </span></span>as the five 'D's of a sick monetary system...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text"></span><span class="Body_Text">- Delusions - the notion that "the welfare state can provide everyone with a free lunch and a reliable pension and health care"<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Deficits and Debts - the accumulation of enormous fiscal imbalances, particularly in the public sector<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Dollars - the debasement of the dollar and reckless credit expansion<br />
</span><span class="Body_Text">- Derivatives - Dr. Homberg pointed out that the notional value of derivatives topped $1,000 trillion, as per a recent IBS report. "This excessive leverage could implode anytime and make the U.S. subprime debacle look like a day at the beach," he said.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">The end result of all this?</span></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">According to Dr. Homberg: "The prices of everything that you must have will escalate at a speed that you will not believe. The prices of energy and fuel will continue to spiral higher. Food and water prices will accelerate upward and will result in a lower standard of living for yourself, your family and your loved ones."</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">PS:<strong> </strong>This was taken from a recent issue of Capital &amp; Crisis. To read more of Chris's expert analysis, <a href="http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/FST/EFSTJ212/">click here</a>.</span></p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/DR_07/Archives/DRArchives2008-2.html">The Inovator, the Imitator and the Idiot</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Three Ways to Successfully Analyze Stocks</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/three-ways-of-successfully-analyze-stocks/4028</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/three-ways-of-successfully-analyze-stocks/4028#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:44:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Floyd Brown</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[US Stocks]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Downturn Strategy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Floyd Brown]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/three-ways-of-successfully-analyze-stocks/4028</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Analysts normally use the discounted cash flow method to analyze stocks. But this method usually ends up returning shockingly poor results. Instead, there are three simple methods of stock analysis that work wonders, says Floyd Brown over at <a href="http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounted_cash_flow" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">InvestmentU.com</a>...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Cash       Balances and Debt<br />
</strong></font><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">When the economy turns down, the highly leveraged firms are the ones that get in trouble first. This is part of the problem for GM and Ford right now, and it was the problem with Bear Stearns. If you have large debts, the interest payments alone are a constant drain. On the other hand, a company like Microsoft - with large stores of cash and no debt - can weather any storm. Amazingly, sometimes a firm's stock price won't adequately value the cash it holds.</font></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Cash       Flow </strong></font><br />
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The market will - over time - value cash flow in similar ways. Look for times when the market undervalues a company's cash by finding out how much cash a company is producing today. Cash flow is the lifeblood of a company. You can reasonably expect that Wall Street will appreciate the value of free cash flow in the future, even if the firm is out of favor today. Therefore, keep track of the cash a firm generates.</font></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Dividends </strong></font><br />
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Between 1872 and 2002, stocks returned an average compound rate of 9%. Earnings-per-share (EPS) grew at 3.3% and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios grew at 0.7%. Reinvested dividends contributed 4.8% - more than half of the total return. Favor a stock with dividends for this very reason. You'll get paid to hold a stock while the market takes time to recognize its value. </font></li>
</ul>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">These three simple guides have worked wonders for me when analyzing many different stocks. One example would be the oil sector. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the 1990s, oil stocks greatly underperformed the market. But they generated huge amounts of cash. I started buying these deeply undervalued stocks in the late '90s knowing that eventually, the historic cash flow generation would win out. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the late 1970s, the market valued a dollar of earnings from oil stocks more dearly than they did a dollar of earnings from those same stocks in 1997. Earnings ratios were out of line with the historic rates of return. Eventually they came back to normal, and proved the wisdom in buying earnings cheaply.</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Many of today's stocks show large differences between their price and their historical earnings ratios. You may find the market is incorrectly valuing many companies in relation to their cash balances and its ability to generate cash flow and dividends. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">So instead of listening to analysts, do your own research and ask the right questions, like these: Can the company rebound to its historic price-to-earnings ratio? Is the market undervaluing a company? Can it continue to generate healthy cash flow and earnings? Will it be able to pay dividends and interest payments on debt?</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In short, cash and cash flow can be a more reliable predictor of the future of a company's stock price than your gut... and especially an analyst's educated guess.</font></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/2008archives.html">Source: Three Ways to Beat Analysts at Their Own Job</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Analysts normally use the discounted cash flow method to analyze stocks. But this method usually ends up returning shockingly poor results. Instead, there are three simple methods of stock analysis that work wonders, says Floyd Brown over at <a href="http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounted_cash_flow" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">InvestmentU.com</a>...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Cash       Balances and Debt<br />
</strong></font><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">When the economy turns down, the highly leveraged firms are the ones that get in trouble first. This is part of the problem for GM and Ford right now, and it was the problem with Bear Stearns. If you have large debts, the interest payments alone are a constant drain. On the other hand, a company like Microsoft - with large stores of cash and no debt - can weather any storm. Amazingly, sometimes a firm's stock price won't adequately value the cash it holds.</font></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Cash       Flow </strong></font><br />
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The market will - over time - value cash flow in similar ways. Look for times when the market undervalues a company's cash by finding out how much cash a company is producing today. Cash flow is the lifeblood of a company. You can reasonably expect that Wall Street will appreciate the value of free cash flow in the future, even if the firm is out of favor today. Therefore, keep track of the cash a firm generates.</font></li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Dividends </strong></font><br />
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Between 1872 and 2002, stocks returned an average compound rate of 9%. Earnings-per-share (EPS) grew at 3.3% and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios grew at 0.7%. Reinvested dividends contributed 4.8% - more than half of the total return. Favor a stock with dividends for this very reason. You'll get paid to hold a stock while the market takes time to recognize its value. </font></li>
</ul>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">These three simple guides have worked wonders for me when analyzing many different stocks. One example would be the oil sector. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the 1990s, oil stocks greatly underperformed the market. But they generated huge amounts of cash. I started buying these deeply undervalued stocks in the late '90s knowing that eventually, the historic cash flow generation would win out. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the late 1970s, the market valued a dollar of earnings from oil stocks more dearly than they did a dollar of earnings from those same stocks in 1997. Earnings ratios were out of line with the historic rates of return. Eventually they came back to normal, and proved the wisdom in buying earnings cheaply.</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Many of today's stocks show large differences between their price and their historical earnings ratios. You may find the market is incorrectly valuing many companies in relation to their cash balances and its ability to generate cash flow and dividends. </font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">So instead of listening to analysts, do your own research and ask the right questions, like these: Can the company rebound to its historic price-to-earnings ratio? Is the market undervaluing a company? Can it continue to generate healthy cash flow and earnings? Will it be able to pay dividends and interest payments on debt?</font></p>
<p><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In short, cash and cash flow can be a more reliable predictor of the future of a company's stock price than your gut... and especially an analyst's educated guess.</font></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/2008archives.html">Source: Three Ways to Beat Analysts at Their Own Job</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/three-ways-of-successfully-analyze-stocks/4028/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Follow Sovereign Wealth Funds Into Oil-Rich Southeast Asia</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/follow-sovereign-wealth-funds-into-oil-rich-southeast-asia/4022</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/follow-sovereign-wealth-funds-into-oil-rich-southeast-asia/4022#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:14:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Irwin Greenstein</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[investing in Indonesia]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Investing In Oil]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Irwin Greenstein]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[PBR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/follow-sovereign-wealth-funds-into-oil-rich-southeast-asia/4022</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The easiest way to pocket gains in <strong>emerging markets</strong> is to follow the money, says Irwin Greenstein in <a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/2008/07/23/how-to-follow-the-real-big-money-on-the-cheap/" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Taipan's Emerging Market blog</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, as Irwin points out, this doesn't exactly sound like a great contrarian play. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Contrarian investors</a> usually bet against the big money.</p>
<p>How do you follow the money? By tracking investments made by the world's cash-rich <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">sovereign wealth funds</a> (SWFs). Irwin says Gulf-state <strong>SWFs</strong> are moving into oil-rich Southeast Asia - tipping off investors to stable, long-term growth opportunities.<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>SWFs are usually owned by the central bank of a government that has trillions in surplus. SWFs have grown in power most recently with the commodity boom. Surging prices in oil, natural gas and precious metals have given SWFs in the Persian Gulf and Asia in particular increased clout in how they want to shape the world.</p>
<p>Now we find that SWFs in the Persian Gulf are moving into oil-rich Southeast Asia — tipping off investors to stable, long-term growth opportunities.</p>
<p><a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/swfs.jpg" rel="lightbox[120]"><img src="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/swfs-300x255.jpg" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-121" title="swfs" height="255" width="300" /></a></p>
<p>At the end of last year, the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) signed a deal with the Indonesian government to establish a $1-billion fund aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure. Once a government starts investing in infrastructure, you know that the economy is set for growth.</p>
<p><span id="more-120"></span></p>
<p>New infrastructure means more reliable energy for manufacturing, better roads for transporting products to market (usually exports), modern airports and harbors and some other amenities that we take for granted…such as running water.</p>
<p>Indonesia gives QIA a toehold in Asia. In 2006, Qatar’s prime minister and QIA head, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, was reported as saying he wanted to take stakes at banks in China, Korea and Vietnam — some of the fastest growing emerging markets on the planet.</p>
<p>Within 18 months, QIA had indeed reached an agreement with Vietnam’s State Capital Investment Corp. for investments in infrastructure, energy and real estate.</p>
<p>Overall, Persian Gulf SWFs are rapidly gaining ground in Asia.</p>
<p>In January, at the ribbon cutting of Kuala Lumpur’s biggest shopping mall, a group of demure guests stood on the sidelines. They were representatives of QIA As it turned out, QIA owned 49% of the mall’s builder.</p>
<p>Kuwait Investment Authority has shifted its investment targets strategy from the sluggish economies of the industrialized West to fast-growing emerging economies such as China, India, South Korea, and Turkey.</p>
<p>The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority, Bader M. Al Sa’ad, told BusinessWeek in January that he wants to invest more in China and Brazil and other hot emerging markets — and less in Britain and France.</p>
<p>(What a coincidence that Brazil’s state-owned Petrobras (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:PBR">PBR</a>) oil company recently found a new field with the potential to produce at least 700 million barrels of crude — followed by deepwater field estimated to hold the equivalent of five- to eight-billion barrels of crude.)</p>
<p>The Middle East Research Institute recently reported that…</p>
<p>– Dubai International Capital and DIFC Investments are working to extend their reach into Pakistan, India and South Korea.</p>
<p>– The Dubai World group of companies, plans to increase the 5% of its assets it has invested in Asia to 30% within five years.</p>
<p>- - Dubai will help launch the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, a joint venture with Nymex to create a futures market for Mideast crude oil exported to Asia.</p>
<p>- - Dubai Ports World, in its attempt to double its capacity in 10 years, is developing terminals in China, India, Vietnam and Pakistan.</p>
<p>In short, the Persian Gulf SWFs see Asia as a strategic investment to help control the natural resources, infrastructures and assets of regions becoming increasingly important to a new world order in the global economy.</p>
<p>So how can an individual investor safely cash in the Persian Gulf SWFs?</p>
<p>One place to find that answer is our Taipan Emerging Market Index. (We post the results every Friday).</p>
<p>A consistent winner in our index has been the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHE:399106">SSE Composite Index</a> (Shanghai: 000001.SS). Right now it’s near 12-month low. We believe that it’s suffered, along with other emerging market indices, more from inflation than poor fundamentals.</p>
<p>It may be too soon to really see if the current uptrend will continue, but the SSE merits are attention. Certainly, the REALLY BIG MONEY is sinking billions into the region, and this could your chance to get in on the cheap.</p></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/2008/07/23/how-to-follow-the-real-big-money-on-the-cheap/">How to Follow the Real Big Money, on the Cheap</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The easiest way to pocket gains in <strong>emerging markets</strong> is to follow the money, says Irwin Greenstein in <a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/2008/07/23/how-to-follow-the-real-big-money-on-the-cheap/" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Taipan's Emerging Market blog</a>.</p>
<p>Of course, as Irwin points out, this doesn't exactly sound like a great contrarian play. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Contrarian investors</a> usually bet against the big money.</p>
<p>How do you follow the money? By tracking investments made by the world's cash-rich <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">sovereign wealth funds</a> (SWFs). Irwin says Gulf-state <strong>SWFs</strong> are moving into oil-rich Southeast Asia - tipping off investors to stable, long-term growth opportunities.<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>SWFs are usually owned by the central bank of a government that has trillions in surplus. SWFs have grown in power most recently with the commodity boom. Surging prices in oil, natural gas and precious metals have given SWFs in the Persian Gulf and Asia in particular increased clout in how they want to shape the world.</p>
<p>Now we find that SWFs in the Persian Gulf are moving into oil-rich Southeast Asia — tipping off investors to stable, long-term growth opportunities.</p>
<p><a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/swfs.jpg" rel="lightbox[120]"><img src="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/swfs-300x255.jpg" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-121" title="swfs" height="255" width="300" /></a></p>
<p>At the end of last year, the Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) signed a deal with the Indonesian government to establish a $1-billion fund aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure. Once a government starts investing in infrastructure, you know that the economy is set for growth.</p>
<p><span id="more-120"></span></p>
<p>New infrastructure means more reliable energy for manufacturing, better roads for transporting products to market (usually exports), modern airports and harbors and some other amenities that we take for granted…such as running water.</p>
<p>Indonesia gives QIA a toehold in Asia. In 2006, Qatar’s prime minister and QIA head, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, was reported as saying he wanted to take stakes at banks in China, Korea and Vietnam — some of the fastest growing emerging markets on the planet.</p>
<p>Within 18 months, QIA had indeed reached an agreement with Vietnam’s State Capital Investment Corp. for investments in infrastructure, energy and real estate.</p>
<p>Overall, Persian Gulf SWFs are rapidly gaining ground in Asia.</p>
<p>In January, at the ribbon cutting of Kuala Lumpur’s biggest shopping mall, a group of demure guests stood on the sidelines. They were representatives of QIA As it turned out, QIA owned 49% of the mall’s builder.</p>
<p>Kuwait Investment Authority has shifted its investment targets strategy from the sluggish economies of the industrialized West to fast-growing emerging economies such as China, India, South Korea, and Turkey.</p>
<p>The head of the Kuwait Investment Authority, Bader M. Al Sa’ad, told BusinessWeek in January that he wants to invest more in China and Brazil and other hot emerging markets — and less in Britain and France.</p>
<p>(What a coincidence that Brazil’s state-owned Petrobras (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:PBR">PBR</a>) oil company recently found a new field with the potential to produce at least 700 million barrels of crude — followed by deepwater field estimated to hold the equivalent of five- to eight-billion barrels of crude.)</p>
<p>The Middle East Research Institute recently reported that…</p>
<p>– Dubai International Capital and DIFC Investments are working to extend their reach into Pakistan, India and South Korea.</p>
<p>– The Dubai World group of companies, plans to increase the 5% of its assets it has invested in Asia to 30% within five years.</p>
<p>- - Dubai will help launch the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, a joint venture with Nymex to create a futures market for Mideast crude oil exported to Asia.</p>
<p>- - Dubai Ports World, in its attempt to double its capacity in 10 years, is developing terminals in China, India, Vietnam and Pakistan.</p>
<p>In short, the Persian Gulf SWFs see Asia as a strategic investment to help control the natural resources, infrastructures and assets of regions becoming increasingly important to a new world order in the global economy.</p>
<p>So how can an individual investor safely cash in the Persian Gulf SWFs?</p>
<p>One place to find that answer is our Taipan Emerging Market Index. (We post the results every Friday).</p>
<p>A consistent winner in our index has been the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=SHE:399106">SSE Composite Index</a> (Shanghai: 000001.SS). Right now it’s near 12-month low. We believe that it’s suffered, along with other emerging market indices, more from inflation than poor fundamentals.</p>
<p>It may be too soon to really see if the current uptrend will continue, but the SSE merits are attention. Certainly, the REALLY BIG MONEY is sinking billions into the region, and this could your chance to get in on the cheap.</p></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/2008/07/23/how-to-follow-the-real-big-money-on-the-cheap/">How to Follow the Real Big Money, on the Cheap</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Buy Gold Now: There&#8217;s No Other Place to Hide</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/inflation-the-naked-truth/3982</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/inflation-the-naked-truth/3982#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 15:05:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Richard Daughty</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Gold &amp; Resources]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[investing in gold]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Richard Daughty]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Us Inflation Rate]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/inflation-the-naked-truth/3982</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Mogambo Guru has picked up on a quote from Stephen Platt<span class="Body_Text"> at Archer Financial Services, who says: "There really is no other place to hide. <strong>Gold </strong>is about the only real currency out there that might hold value."</span><!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">"Might" hold value? Hahahaha! Mr. Platt is this week's winner of the Mogambo Award For Understatement (MAFU)! Hahaha!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I could tell that Mr. Ash is suddenly envious of Mr. Platt getting the coveted MAFU, and decides to go for the Mogambo Award For Surprising Statistics (MAFSS) using (obviously, to get on my good side and try and influence the judge giving out the award, namely me), gold as the example.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">So how high can gold go? My usual answer is to first demand an estimate of, "How low can the dollar can go?", which is the same as asking "How low WILL the dollar go?", which is the easiest question on the whole mid-term exam; the answer is that it can, and will, <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/rpt/DollarDecline.html" title="dollar decline">go to zero</a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">How do I know that the dollar will go to zero value? Because it is a fiat currency, and all of the other thousands of <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/rpt/fiathistoryWP.html" title="fiat currency">fiat currencies</a> tried by different countries over the millennia have ALL gone to zero! All!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">So the height to which gold can go, in dollars, is infinity! And "infinity" is the answer to another question on the mid-term exam, namely, "How much is the market price of gold in dollars if the dollar is worth zero?"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Mr. Ash shows no interest in my stupid mid-term exam, but seemingly agrees with me when he says, "Even after trebling in price from the low of eight years ago, there may be plenty of room for gold to rise from here."</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I was pretty unimpressed at such an unsubstantiated estimate until he quoted Peter Bernstein in his classic book, The Power of Gold, who wrote, "In 1959, the amount invested in gold was about one-fifth of the market value of all US common stocks. In 1980, the $1.6 trillion invested in gold exceeded the market value of $1.4 trillion in US stocks." Wow! The fact that gold went from 20% to more than 100% of market value of financial assets is a very interesting precedent, reached when gold reached the pinnacle of its previous high of $850 per ounce!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">In fact, it's all even MORE unbalanced today, as they go on, "The sum total of gold investment lags far behind the value of stock and bond markets today. Indeed, a 2005 study from Tocqueville Asset Management noted that, if taken altogether, 'the market cap of all above-ground gold - including central bank reserves - [now] equals about 1.4% of global financial assets.'"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Once gold held for investment was worth more than the U.S. stock market, and now total gold in less than 1.4% of financial assets? Wow! The inescapable conclusion is that there is a lot of room for gold to go higher and higher and higher, just like history predicts it will! Whee!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">The historical record of monetary policies as regards fiat money sure makes investing easy, as it does not even involve using a calculator, working, or even thinking! Buy gold, silver and oil! Whee!</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">PS: To get The Daily Reckoning sent directly to your inbox, you can <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/Sub/DRsite.html" title="Daily Reckoning sign up">sign up here</a>. for our free email newsletter, or if you prefer to use RSS, subscribe to the Daily Reckoning RSS feed.</span></p>
<blockquote><p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG072208.html">Economy Forces Strippers to Jockey for Pole Position</a></p></blockquote>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Mogambo Guru has picked up on a quote from Stephen Platt<span class="Body_Text"> at Archer Financial Services, who says: "There really is no other place to hide. <strong>Gold </strong>is about the only real currency out there that might hold value."</span><!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">"Might" hold value? Hahahaha! Mr. Platt is this week's winner of the Mogambo Award For Understatement (MAFU)! Hahaha!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I could tell that Mr. Ash is suddenly envious of Mr. Platt getting the coveted MAFU, and decides to go for the Mogambo Award For Surprising Statistics (MAFSS) using (obviously, to get on my good side and try and influence the judge giving out the award, namely me), gold as the example.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">So how high can gold go? My usual answer is to first demand an estimate of, "How low can the dollar can go?", which is the same as asking "How low WILL the dollar go?", which is the easiest question on the whole mid-term exam; the answer is that it can, and will, <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/rpt/DollarDecline.html" title="dollar decline">go to zero</a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">How do I know that the dollar will go to zero value? Because it is a fiat currency, and all of the other thousands of <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/rpt/fiathistoryWP.html" title="fiat currency">fiat currencies</a> tried by different countries over the millennia have ALL gone to zero! All!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">So the height to which gold can go, in dollars, is infinity! And "infinity" is the answer to another question on the mid-term exam, namely, "How much is the market price of gold in dollars if the dollar is worth zero?"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Mr. Ash shows no interest in my stupid mid-term exam, but seemingly agrees with me when he says, "Even after trebling in price from the low of eight years ago, there may be plenty of room for gold to rise from here."</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I was pretty unimpressed at such an unsubstantiated estimate until he quoted Peter Bernstein in his classic book, The Power of Gold, who wrote, "In 1959, the amount invested in gold was about one-fifth of the market value of all US common stocks. In 1980, the $1.6 trillion invested in gold exceeded the market value of $1.4 trillion in US stocks." Wow! The fact that gold went from 20% to more than 100% of market value of financial assets is a very interesting precedent, reached when gold reached the pinnacle of its previous high of $850 per ounce!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">In fact, it's all even MORE unbalanced today, as they go on, "The sum total of gold investment lags far behind the value of stock and bond markets today. Indeed, a 2005 study from Tocqueville Asset Management noted that, if taken altogether, 'the market cap of all above-ground gold - including central bank reserves - [now] equals about 1.4% of global financial assets.'"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Once gold held for investment was worth more than the U.S. stock market, and now total gold in less than 1.4% of financial assets? Wow! The inescapable conclusion is that there is a lot of room for gold to go higher and higher and higher, just like history predicts it will! Whee!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">The historical record of monetary policies as regards fiat money sure makes investing easy, as it does not even involve using a calculator, working, or even thinking! Buy gold, silver and oil! Whee!</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="Body_Text">PS: To get The Daily Reckoning sent directly to your inbox, you can <a href="http://dailyreckoning.com/Sub/DRsite.html" title="Daily Reckoning sign up">sign up here</a>. for our free email newsletter, or if you prefer to use RSS, subscribe to the Daily Reckoning RSS feed.</span></p>
<blockquote><p>Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG072208.html">Economy Forces Strippers to Jockey for Pole Position</a></p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): The Perfect Downturn Stock</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cal-maine-foods-calm-the-perfect-downturn-stock/4017</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cal-maine-foods-calm-the-perfect-downturn-stock/4017#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wayne Mulligan</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[CALM]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Downturn Strategy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Wayne Mulligan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cal-maine-foods-calm-the-perfect-downturn-stock/4017</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>People still have to eat in a <strong>downturn</strong>, says Wayne Mulligan in Penny Sleuth. And one of the American food staples is eggs.</p>
<p>There's hardly an American grocery basket that doesn't include eggs.</p>
<p>Wayne says a great way to play this is through <strong>Cal-Maine Foods</strong>, <strong>Inc.</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CALM">CALM</a>).</p>
<p>The company produces almost 15% of the eggs eaten in the US, and its market share is growing. It also has a rock-solid set of financials...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>Operating Margins are north of 30%, Net Profit Margins are at roughly 20% and the company’s Return on Equity (a metric I love to use) is over 25%!</p>
<p>To put that in perspective, the average company in the S&amp;P 500 has profit margins of 11% and Returns on Equity of 15%, so Cal-Maine is definitely running a tight ship.</p>
<p>But things haven’t always been this great for Cal-Maine and the other egg producers in the U.S. They’ve had a little help from the corn market…</p>
<p>Due to the rising cost of corn, Cal-Maine and other egg companies have seen their feeding costs rise by 30% this year. That may sound like bad news but since eggs are such a customary item on American breakfast tables, Cal-Maine has been able to raise its prices right along with its costs. In fact, the company was able to increase its prices above costs and expand its margins and profits as well.</p>
<p>That’s why this company’s stock has practically doubled over the last 12 months — and many folks, including <em>Barron’s,</em>  think it could double again.</p>
<p>I’m not sure about a double, but with a stock that’s trading at a $900 million market cap and paying an 8%-plus yield, I’d still feel comfortable socking Cal-Maine away in my portfolio for a while.</p>
<p>But I’m also going to keep an eye on the corn market. If the price of corn begins to come down in a significant way, you can bet that Cal-Maine’s profits and stock price will drop right along with it.</p></blockquote>
<p>PS: As well as writing for <a href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">PennySleuth.com</a>,  Wayne Mulligan is the founder of <a href="http://www.tickerhound.com" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Tickerhoud.com</a>. The site is an open platform for investors to answer other investors' questions on a wide range of subjects. It's well worth checking out.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/2008alerts.html">Source: Turning Eggs into Dollars</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>People still have to eat in a <strong>downturn</strong>, says Wayne Mulligan in Penny Sleuth. And one of the American food staples is eggs.</p>
<p>There's hardly an American grocery basket that doesn't include eggs.</p>
<p>Wayne says a great way to play this is through <strong>Cal-Maine Foods</strong>, <strong>Inc.</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CALM">CALM</a>).</p>
<p>The company produces almost 15% of the eggs eaten in the US, and its market share is growing. It also has a rock-solid set of financials...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>Operating Margins are north of 30%, Net Profit Margins are at roughly 20% and the company’s Return on Equity (a metric I love to use) is over 25%!</p>
<p>To put that in perspective, the average company in the S&amp;P 500 has profit margins of 11% and Returns on Equity of 15%, so Cal-Maine is definitely running a tight ship.</p>
<p>But things haven’t always been this great for Cal-Maine and the other egg producers in the U.S. They’ve had a little help from the corn market…</p>
<p>Due to the rising cost of corn, Cal-Maine and other egg companies have seen their feeding costs rise by 30% this year. That may sound like bad news but since eggs are such a customary item on American breakfast tables, Cal-Maine has been able to raise its prices right along with its costs. In fact, the company was able to increase its prices above costs and expand its margins and profits as well.</p>
<p>That’s why this company’s stock has practically doubled over the last 12 months — and many folks, including <em>Barron’s,</em>  think it could double again.</p>
<p>I’m not sure about a double, but with a stock that’s trading at a $900 million market cap and paying an 8%-plus yield, I’d still feel comfortable socking Cal-Maine away in my portfolio for a while.</p>
<p>But I’m also going to keep an eye on the corn market. If the price of corn begins to come down in a significant way, you can bet that Cal-Maine’s profits and stock price will drop right along with it.</p></blockquote>
<p>PS: As well as writing for <a href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">PennySleuth.com</a>,  Wayne Mulligan is the founder of <a href="http://www.tickerhound.com" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">Tickerhoud.com</a>. The site is an open platform for investors to answer other investors' questions on a wide range of subjects. It's well worth checking out.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pennysleuth.com/2008alerts.html">Source: Turning Eggs into Dollars</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Housing Bill a Major Threat to Privacy</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/housing-bill-a-major-threat-to-privacy/4014</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/housing-bill-a-major-threat-to-privacy/4014#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:03:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gonigam</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Dave Gonigam]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[FNM]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[FRE]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Hank Paulson]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[subprime crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US Banking]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US housing crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-rise-on-back-of-paulsons-bailout/4014</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Shares in stricken government-chartered mortgage giants <strong>Fannie Mae</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFNM" title="Open a new window to read more" target="_blank">FNM</a>) and <strong>Freddie Mac</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFRE" title="Open a new window to read more" target="_blank">FRE</a>) rose more than 5 percent before the bell on news that the House of Representatives passed Hank Paulson's <strong>housing resuce plan</strong>.</p>
<p>The housing plan - which now includes provisions to bail out <strong>Fannie </strong>and <strong>Freddie </strong>- is now likely to become law within days.</p>
<p>The problem is the bill is "a major-league privacy threat," according to Dave Gonigam in Desidooru Saloon. Of course, the mainstream media hasn't given this angle of the story much coverage... <!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>Two egregious provisions of the bill haven't gotten a lot of coverage, especially since Fannie and Freddie got thrown into the mix, but I assume they'll end up in the final version of the bill: 1) Nearly all credit-card transactions will be tracked and reported to the IRS and 2) Many people in the mortgage and real estate industries must submit to a mandatory fingerprint registry.</p>
<p>Let's start with the credit card (and debit card) provision first.  Former Congressman Dick Armey's Freedomworks organization has led a feeble opposition.  As he <a href="http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press_template.php?press_id=2571" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/www.freedomworks.org');" target="_blank">explains</a>  it:</p>
<blockquote><p>This is a provision with astonishing reach… Not only does it affect nearly every credit card transaction in America, such as Visa, MasterCard, Discover, and American Express, but the bill specifically targets payment systems like eBay's PayPal, Amazon, and Google Checkout that are used by many small online businesses. The privacy implications for America's small businesses are breathtaking.</p></blockquote>
<p>To say nothing of America's consumers.   The aim is to curb underreporting of income by businesses to the IRS.  It sure seems odd that this would turn up in a bill championed by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) who poses as a champion of civil liberties, and indeed who took the lead fighting the warrantless wiretapping bill that retroactively cleared the phone companies of breaking the law.</p>
<p>But when it comes to reporting all our credit card transactions to the IRS, Dodd's office says nope, <a href="http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/2008/06/credit-card-tracking-slipped-i.html" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/blogs.courant.com');" target="_blank">nothing</a>  to worry about.</p>
<blockquote><p><em>This is not a controversial provision or a new one.  Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee have supported it for months, and it has been included in the Administration's budget proposal for years.  This provision simply requires banks–not small businesses–to report sales transactions to the IRS each year and to merchants at the end of each day.  It makes the tax system fair for everyone, without burdening small businesses and without putting consumers' privacy rights at risk. </em></p></blockquote>
<p>I guess PayPal, et. al. now qualify as "banks" in Washington.  You can read the official <a href="http://rpc.senate.gov/public/_files/L62HR3221Houseamendments0618SN.pdf" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/rpc.senate.gov');" target="_blank">summary</a>  of the amendment [.pdf file] and decide for yourself:</p>
<blockquote><p>The proposal requires information reporting on payment card and third party network transactions. Payment settlement entities, including merchant acquiring banks and third party settlement organizations, or third party payment facilitators acting on their behalf, will be required to report the annual gross amount of reportable transactions to the IRS and to the participating payee. Reportable transactions include any payment card transaction and any third party network transaction. Participating payees include persons who accept a payment card as payment and third party networks who accept payment from a third party settlement organization in settlement of transactions. A payment card means any card issued pursuant to an agreement or arrangement which provides for standards and mechanisms for settling the transactions. Use of an account number or other indicia associated with a payment card will be treated in the same manner as a payment card. A de minimis exception for transactions of $10,000 or less and 200 transactions or less applies to payments by third party settlement organizations. The proposal applies to returns for calendar years beginning after December 31, 2010. Back-up withholding provisions apply to amounts paid after December 31, 2011.</p></blockquote>
<p>Then there's the fingerprint provision.  As <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121417819688495525.html?mod=Letters" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/online.wsj.com');" target="_blank">explained</a>  by the Competitive Enterprise Institute's John Berlau:</p>
<blockquote><p>The provision says that "an individual may not engage in the business of a loan originator without first . . . obtaining a unique identifier." To obtain this "identifier," an individual is required to "furnish" to the newly created Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System and Registry "information concerning the applicant's identity, including fingerprints," that will be sent to the FBI and other government agencies.</p>
<p class="times">The bill's definition of "loan originator" could cover a broad swath of employees working for mortgage lenders and brokers and real estate firms, including clerical employees, part-time and seasonal workers. An "originator" is defined as anyone who "takes a residential loan application; and offers or negotiates terms of a residential mortgage loan for compensation or gain." Real estate agents are also covered if they receive any type of compensation from "originators."</p>
<p class="times">The rationale for this new fingerprint registry is thin. Were a significant number of bad loans made by ex-convicts? And how would the targeting of lower-level employees – rather than executives like Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo – stem the creation of problematic mortgages?</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="times">And so, Congress and the President are about to perform favors for their contributors and constituencies, while ordinary people foot the bill and have their privacy stripped in the process.  Just swell.</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="times">Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.us/blog/?p=841" rel="bookmark">Housing legislation — even worse than you think</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="times">&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Shares in stricken government-chartered mortgage giants <strong>Fannie Mae</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFNM" title="Open a new window to read more" target="_blank">FNM</a>) and <strong>Freddie Mac</strong> (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFRE" title="Open a new window to read more" target="_blank">FRE</a>) rose more than 5 percent before the bell on news that the House of Representatives passed Hank Paulson's <strong>housing resuce plan</strong>.</p>
<p>The housing plan - which now includes provisions to bail out <strong>Fannie </strong>and <strong>Freddie </strong>- is now likely to become law within days.</p>
<p>The problem is the bill is "a major-league privacy threat," according to Dave Gonigam in Desidooru Saloon. Of course, the mainstream media hasn't given this angle of the story much coverage... <!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p>Two egregious provisions of the bill haven't gotten a lot of coverage, especially since Fannie and Freddie got thrown into the mix, but I assume they'll end up in the final version of the bill: 1) Nearly all credit-card transactions will be tracked and reported to the IRS and 2) Many people in the mortgage and real estate industries must submit to a mandatory fingerprint registry.</p>
<p>Let's start with the credit card (and debit card) provision first.  Former Congressman Dick Armey's Freedomworks organization has led a feeble opposition.  As he <a href="http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press_template.php?press_id=2571" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/www.freedomworks.org');" target="_blank">explains</a>  it:</p>
<blockquote><p>This is a provision with astonishing reach… Not only does it affect nearly every credit card transaction in America, such as Visa, MasterCard, Discover, and American Express, but the bill specifically targets payment systems like eBay's PayPal, Amazon, and Google Checkout that are used by many small online businesses. The privacy implications for America's small businesses are breathtaking.</p></blockquote>
<p>To say nothing of America's consumers.   The aim is to curb underreporting of income by businesses to the IRS.  It sure seems odd that this would turn up in a bill championed by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) who poses as a champion of civil liberties, and indeed who took the lead fighting the warrantless wiretapping bill that retroactively cleared the phone companies of breaking the law.</p>
<p>But when it comes to reporting all our credit card transactions to the IRS, Dodd's office says nope, <a href="http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/2008/06/credit-card-tracking-slipped-i.html" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/blogs.courant.com');" target="_blank">nothing</a>  to worry about.</p>
<blockquote><p><em>This is not a controversial provision or a new one.  Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee have supported it for months, and it has been included in the Administration's budget proposal for years.  This provision simply requires banks–not small businesses–to report sales transactions to the IRS each year and to merchants at the end of each day.  It makes the tax system fair for everyone, without burdening small businesses and without putting consumers' privacy rights at risk. </em></p></blockquote>
<p>I guess PayPal, et. al. now qualify as "banks" in Washington.  You can read the official <a href="http://rpc.senate.gov/public/_files/L62HR3221Houseamendments0618SN.pdf" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/rpc.senate.gov');" target="_blank">summary</a>  of the amendment [.pdf file] and decide for yourself:</p>
<blockquote><p>The proposal requires information reporting on payment card and third party network transactions. Payment settlement entities, including merchant acquiring banks and third party settlement organizations, or third party payment facilitators acting on their behalf, will be required to report the annual gross amount of reportable transactions to the IRS and to the participating payee. Reportable transactions include any payment card transaction and any third party network transaction. Participating payees include persons who accept a payment card as payment and third party networks who accept payment from a third party settlement organization in settlement of transactions. A payment card means any card issued pursuant to an agreement or arrangement which provides for standards and mechanisms for settling the transactions. Use of an account number or other indicia associated with a payment card will be treated in the same manner as a payment card. A de minimis exception for transactions of $10,000 or less and 200 transactions or less applies to payments by third party settlement organizations. The proposal applies to returns for calendar years beginning after December 31, 2010. Back-up withholding provisions apply to amounts paid after December 31, 2011.</p></blockquote>
<p>Then there's the fingerprint provision.  As <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121417819688495525.html?mod=Letters" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker ('/outbound/article/online.wsj.com');" target="_blank">explained</a>  by the Competitive Enterprise Institute's John Berlau:</p>
<blockquote><p>The provision says that "an individual may not engage in the business of a loan originator without first . . . obtaining a unique identifier." To obtain this "identifier," an individual is required to "furnish" to the newly created Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System and Registry "information concerning the applicant's identity, including fingerprints," that will be sent to the FBI and other government agencies.</p>
<p class="times">The bill's definition of "loan originator" could cover a broad swath of employees working for mortgage lenders and brokers and real estate firms, including clerical employees, part-time and seasonal workers. An "originator" is defined as anyone who "takes a residential loan application; and offers or negotiates terms of a residential mortgage loan for compensation or gain." Real estate agents are also covered if they receive any type of compensation from "originators."</p>
<p class="times">The rationale for this new fingerprint registry is thin. Were a significant number of bad loans made by ex-convicts? And how would the targeting of lower-level employees – rather than executives like Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo – stem the creation of problematic mortgages?</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="times">And so, Congress and the President are about to perform favors for their contributors and constituencies, while ordinary people foot the bill and have their privacy stripped in the process.  Just swell.</p>
</blockquote>
<p class="times">Source: <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.us/blog/?p=841" rel="bookmark">Housing legislation — even worse than you think</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p class="times">&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>If Offshore Drilling Ban Is Lifted Prepare for Huge Profit Play</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/if-offshore-drilling-ban-is-lifted-prepare-for-huge-profit-play/4019</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/if-offshore-drilling-ban-is-lifted-prepare-for-huge-profit-play/4019#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 13:21:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Byron King]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Investing In Oil]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[peak oil]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[President Bush]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US elections]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/if-offshore-drilling-ban-is-lifted-prepare-for-huge-profit-play/4019</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>President Bush has lifted the executive ban of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080715/a_bushoil15.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">offshore drilling</a>, a move which John McCain has ludicrously <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/23/mccain-credits-bush-with_n_114534.html" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">linked</a> to the recent drop in <strong>crude oil prices</strong>.</p>
<p>The Republicans are trying to reach the voters with a simple message: "Drill, drill, drill." And energy expert Byron King says the message is a powerful one. It's going to be one heck of a winter, especially when Americans have to fill up their heating oil tanks in the fall - right before the elections.</p>
<p>If Congress lifts its own drilling ban as well, it's going to create a huge opportunity to profit…<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/bush.jpg" title="bush.jpg"></a>Now the burden is on Congress to change the law. And the $4 gas and public pressure is swinging in favor of that… maybe not this year, though. The politicians (esp hard-left Democrats who steer policy from the top echelons) have crystallized their positions to where it’ll be hard to change over the summer, in the lead-up to the nominating convention for the new president.</p>
<p>Then again…</p>
<p>It’s going to be a heckuva winter, especially when people have to fill their heating oil tanks in the fall. Right before the election, in October, people will fill the heating tanks for the first time and get thwacked with a $4,000 bill, versus the $2,000 they paid last year. Oooooowch!!! The New England Democrats will start to feel the pain created by the vox populi. It’ll make McCain’s time at the Hanoi Hilton seem like a day at the beach. Hey, it’s turnaround.</p>
<p>Grudgingly, haltingly, being draged kicking &amp; screaming, the Democrats will schedule some ceremonial vote on drilling, with all sorts of restrictions. But the idea will be that they can say “See, I voted for drilling.” Even though it’ll be some ridiculous bill that does nothing and probably makes things even worse.</p>
<p>Like Kevin Kerr says, even in the best of times… it’s hard to unwind 30 years of under-investment and outright neglect of a massive and complex industrial segment like offshore drilling.</p>
<p>The good news is that this is a gigantic investment opportunity. Hundreds of billions of $$$ are going into the OCS in the coming years. Sooner or later, the money will be moving.</p>
<p>More here:<br />
<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25674571/" title="US Offshore Drilling">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25674571/</a></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="color: #4b4b4b"></span>PS: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey &amp; Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources <a href="http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Sub/energyandoil.html" title="Free Whiskey &amp; Gunpowder Sign Up"><span style="color: #676767">sign up here!</span></a></p>
<blockquote></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.energyandoil.com/us-offshore-drillingand-politics">US Offshore Drilling…and Politics</a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>President Bush has lifted the executive ban of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080715/a_bushoil15.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">offshore drilling</a>, a move which John McCain has ludicrously <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/23/mccain-credits-bush-with_n_114534.html" title="Open a new browser window to learn more." target="_blank">linked</a> to the recent drop in <strong>crude oil prices</strong>.</p>
<p>The Republicans are trying to reach the voters with a simple message: "Drill, drill, drill." And energy expert Byron King says the message is a powerful one. It's going to be one heck of a winter, especially when Americans have to fill up their heating oil tanks in the fall - right before the elections.</p>
<p>If Congress lifts its own drilling ban as well, it's going to create a huge opportunity to profit…<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/bush.jpg" title="bush.jpg"></a>Now the burden is on Congress to change the law. And the $4 gas and public pressure is swinging in favor of that… maybe not this year, though. The politicians (esp hard-left Democrats who steer policy from the top echelons) have crystallized their positions to where it’ll be hard to change over the summer, in the lead-up to the nominating convention for the new president.</p>
<p>Then again…</p>
<p>It’s going to be a heckuva winter, especially when people have to fill their heating oil tanks in the fall. Right before the election, in October, people will fill the heating tanks for the first time and get thwacked with a $4,000 bill, versus the $2,000 they paid last year. Oooooowch!!! The New England Democrats will start to feel the pain created by the vox populi. It’ll make McCain’s time at the Hanoi Hilton seem like a day at the beach. Hey, it’s turnaround.</p>
<p>Grudgingly, haltingly, being draged kicking &amp; screaming, the Democrats will schedule some ceremonial vote on drilling, with all sorts of restrictions. But the idea will be that they can say “See, I voted for drilling.” Even though it’ll be some ridiculous bill that does nothing and probably makes things even worse.</p>
<p>Like Kevin Kerr says, even in the best of times… it’s hard to unwind 30 years of under-investment and outright neglect of a massive and complex industrial segment like offshore drilling.</p>
<p>The good news is that this is a gigantic investment opportunity. Hundreds of billions of $$$ are going into the OCS in the coming years. Sooner or later, the money will be moving.</p>
<p>More here:<br />
<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25674571/" title="US Offshore Drilling">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25674571/</a></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="color: #4b4b4b"></span>PS: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey &amp; Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources <a href="http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Sub/energyandoil.html" title="Free Whiskey &amp; Gunpowder Sign Up"><span style="color: #676767">sign up here!</span></a></p>
<blockquote></blockquote>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.energyandoil.com/us-offshore-drillingand-politics">US Offshore Drilling…and Politics</a></p>
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		<title>Inflation in Prices Follows Inflation in the Money Supply</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/us-and-uk-feel-the-pain-of-inflation/3913</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/us-and-uk-feel-the-pain-of-inflation/3913#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Richard Daughty</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Politics &amp; Economics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Global Inflation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Global Recession]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Richard Daughty]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[stagflation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Us Inflation Rate]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[US recession]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/us-and-uk-feel-the-pain-of-inflation/3913</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods increased 1.8 percent in June. But these are "seasonally adjusted" figures, says The Mogambo Guru. The un-adjusted figures - the raw data - tells a different story. They reveal prices jumped 9.2 percent for the same period...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">Even worse, at the earlier stages of processing, "prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 2.1 percent in June after moving up 2.9 percent in the prior month," and last but not least, the crude goods index increased a whopping 3.7% following a huge 6.7% gain in May! Inflation in prices is freaking here, and we are freaking doomed!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Of course, this "We're freaking doomed" idea was not mentioned at all in the BLS report, almost certainly censored out, as I distinctly remember writing to them, "Dear BLS morons, Inflation in prices that follows inflation in the money supply is here! Look at your own inflation data, you Halfwit, Lowlife, Lying Government Scumbags (HLLGS)! We're freaking doomed! And you can quote me on that! (signed) Mogambo."</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Most people would say, "I wouldn't quote you, either, if you insulted me like that!", which only proves why I don't like most people, but which doesn't explain why the news just gets worse and worse, as "During the first 6 months of 2008, the finished goods index rose at a 12.4-percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) after increasing at a 5.8-percent SAAR during the second half of 2007." Yikes! 12% inflation!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I am trying not to scream out "We're freaking doomed" at the mere idea of 12% inflation in prices, much less the actuality of 12% inflation in prices, and (thanks to a Manly Mogambo Effort (MME)), I temporarily succeed in controlling myself, only to be whacked upside the proverbial head with "Prices for finished energy goods climbed at a 38.1-percent SAAR from December 2007 to June 2008 after rising at a 16.7-percent SAAR for the 6 months ended December 2007." 38% inflation in prices!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">My head is swimming and I feel a swoon coming on at the idea of 38% inflation, and I would have fainted, too, if I hadn't remembered what happened the LAST time I had a fainting spell because of inflation in consumer prices, where everybody gathered around to steal my wallet and use my own money to bet whether or not I would die! Bastards!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But this is not about the crap I have to put up with around here from a bunch of sadistic pinheads, but about how the news just keeps getting (as they say) worser and worser, as the inflation in prices for crude goods is where the news unbelievably gets worse, as if that even seems possible, with prices being up a gigantic 45.5% (unadjusted) from a year ago! 45% increase in prices! Yikes! We're Truly, Truly, Truly Freaking Doomed (TTTFD)!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">As if one cue, I lose my cool and I run around my desk in little circles screaming, "We're freaking doomed! We're freaking doomed!"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">After a few laps, I am winded and tired, and as I pant and puff, I realize that it is not just us Americans that are doomed, as people all over the world are suffering from the horrors of runaway inflation in the consumer prices of things like food and energy because their idiot governments are allowing too much creating of money and credit, too, just like us butthead Americans.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG071808.html">Source: <span class="DR_GREEN_Head">Inflation Induced Fainting Spells</span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG071808.html"> </a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&amp;post=3911"> </a></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods increased 1.8 percent in June. But these are "seasonally adjusted" figures, says The Mogambo Guru. The un-adjusted figures - the raw data - tells a different story. They reveal prices jumped 9.2 percent for the same period...<!--more--></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="Body_Text">Even worse, at the earlier stages of processing, "prices received by producers of intermediate goods rose 2.1 percent in June after moving up 2.9 percent in the prior month," and last but not least, the crude goods index increased a whopping 3.7% following a huge 6.7% gain in May! Inflation in prices is freaking here, and we are freaking doomed!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Of course, this "We're freaking doomed" idea was not mentioned at all in the BLS report, almost certainly censored out, as I distinctly remember writing to them, "Dear BLS morons, Inflation in prices that follows inflation in the money supply is here! Look at your own inflation data, you Halfwit, Lowlife, Lying Government Scumbags (HLLGS)! We're freaking doomed! And you can quote me on that! (signed) Mogambo."</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">Most people would say, "I wouldn't quote you, either, if you insulted me like that!", which only proves why I don't like most people, but which doesn't explain why the news just gets worse and worse, as "During the first 6 months of 2008, the finished goods index rose at a 12.4-percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) after increasing at a 5.8-percent SAAR during the second half of 2007." Yikes! 12% inflation!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">I am trying not to scream out "We're freaking doomed" at the mere idea of 12% inflation in prices, much less the actuality of 12% inflation in prices, and (thanks to a Manly Mogambo Effort (MME)), I temporarily succeed in controlling myself, only to be whacked upside the proverbial head with "Prices for finished energy goods climbed at a 38.1-percent SAAR from December 2007 to June 2008 after rising at a 16.7-percent SAAR for the 6 months ended December 2007." 38% inflation in prices!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">My head is swimming and I feel a swoon coming on at the idea of 38% inflation, and I would have fainted, too, if I hadn't remembered what happened the LAST time I had a fainting spell because of inflation in consumer prices, where everybody gathered around to steal my wallet and use my own money to bet whether or not I would die! Bastards!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">But this is not about the crap I have to put up with around here from a bunch of sadistic pinheads, but about how the news just keeps getting (as they say) worser and worser, as the inflation in prices for crude goods is where the news unbelievably gets worse, as if that even seems possible, with prices being up a gigantic 45.5% (unadjusted) from a year ago! 45% increase in prices! Yikes! We're Truly, Truly, Truly Freaking Doomed (TTTFD)!</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">As if one cue, I lose my cool and I run around my desk in little circles screaming, "We're freaking doomed! We're freaking doomed!"</span></p>
<p><span class="Body_Text">After a few laps, I am winded and tired, and as I pant and puff, I realize that it is not just us Americans that are doomed, as people all over the world are suffering from the horrors of runaway inflation in the consumer prices of things like food and energy because their idiot governments are allowing too much creating of money and credit, too, just like us butthead Americans.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG071808.html">Source: <span class="DR_GREEN_Head">Inflation Induced Fainting Spells</span></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG071808.html"> </a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&amp;post=3911"> </a></p>
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